Show Idle (>14 d.) Chans

← 2020-10-10 | 2020-10-12 →
12:31 thimbronion Damn. spandrell is going full urbit-tard.
12:36 thimbronion << this page is filled with lies: "Urbit OS is completely sealed from the system it runs on, sort of like WASM or the JVM. We sometimes call it an ‘overlay OS’."
12:37 thimbronion They're telling people to run their "completely sealed from the system" digital citadels on cloud servers.
12:38 thimbronion has it's own blockchain nao lol
12:44 asciilifeform thimbronion: re urbitism, see also .
12:57 thimbronion asciilifeform: thanks. I don't know what "jets" are but if more software, I don't need to read further.
12:58 thimbronion I don't know what exactly it is that makes people susceptible to altcoinism, but it seems to strike the fomo'd "smart" crowd the hardest.
12:59 asciilifeform thimbronion: 'jets' were/are the single most audacious part of the orig. circus. but rather laborious to explain, you can search the #t logs if curious.
13:00 asciilifeform thimbronion: imho it is rather clear what makes folx susceptible to altcoinism. they want 'replay history, but this time i'ma be in Right Place, Right Time, become important' etc
13:01 thimbronion asciilifeform: the funny thing being that it's *not even close to too late* to get into Bitcoin.
13:01 asciilifeform the part where the success rate, for these attempts is historically 0 -- is not a problem for the ~pusher~. the latter usually does find a way to profit (from the chumps , rather than directly)
13:02 asciilifeform thimbronion: they dun want 'get in', they want '$mil from empty space'
13:04 asciilifeform from the pov of the folx who stood and watched while usd-btc exch rate was gaining zeros to the left of the decimal point -- it does seem 'too late'
13:04 thimbronion asciilifeform: this betrays a certain limit to the imagination, I would guess.
13:05 asciilifeform thimbronion: elaborate ?
13:08 thimbronion asciilifeform: a form of cynical 4 year cycle "startupism."
13:10 asciilifeform thimbronion: the altcoinists -- sure . but i was speaking of the fact that the exch rate prolly aint growing another 0 -- or rather, not w/out the dollar price of archaetypical sandwich also growing a zero.
13:10 snsabot (asciilifeform) 2020-05-05 asciilifeform: thimbronion: i watched ruble die as a boy. suddenly had whole sack full of'em, felt 'rich'. until a little later, when noticed it wouldn't buy even candy bar
13:10 asciilifeform so from that pov 'the time to get on the train was 2009' etc
13:17 thimbronion asciilifeform: much easier to imagine it gaining another zero sometime soon than imagining it having gained any zeros at all.
13:17 asciilifeform thimbronion: oh i'm quite certain it'll gain zeros. but at same time as $ price of petrol, rent, etc..
13:18 thimbronion asciilifeform: to be sure.
13:18 asciilifeform no limit, in principle, to the # of zeros it'll gain, either. depends only on usg's printing press.
13:18 asciilifeform simply -- this aint the sort of gain the typical btc enthusiast is interested in experiencing.
13:20 asciilifeform rather, folx want the 2009-2017 kind . where btc from 0 to ~20k, while their $-denominated expenses ~constant .
13:20 thimbronion Doesn't the best play ultimately lead back to btc though? Say you pull off you're scam. What are you going to do? Leave the ill gotten gains in fiat?
13:20 thimbronion *your
13:21 asciilifeform i actually have nfi whether all of the altscammers park their gain in btc, or some liquidate to usd/eur/etc
13:21 * asciilifeform does not very actively follow the subj
13:21 asciilifeform i seem to recall that the ethereum perp sold 1000s of btc for usd, to put in own pocket.
13:22 thimbronion I think at least a few dips have been due to scammers selling btc.
13:22 thimbronion It's been long enough now though that many can see that was a bad choice.
13:23 asciilifeform i suspect that they are required to sell , as part of their typical bargain with usg
13:25 thimbronion asciilifeform: possibly - but if short-sighted enough to scam, also short-sighted enough to sell. In any case, if buying fiat continues to be the requirement, either the scams need to get bigger, or there will be a shortage of scammers.
13:26 asciilifeform erry time usd-btc exch rate becomes 'dangerously high' (~10k seems to be the tripwire, ever since 'system' established) usg dumps (or presses on a compliant asset to dump) a truckload of coin. does not even have to be cosmic qty of coin; simply enuff to trigger margin calls and set the idjit dominoes falling
13:26 snsabot (asciilifeform) 2020-08-10 asciilifeform: imho also not coincidence that that was roughly when leveraged 'paper btc' was introduced.
13:27 thimbronion certainly but if that's they case why shoot themselves in the foot shutting down Bitmex?
13:27 asciilifeform after the crash, normally same folx buy up said coin at discount, and then 'rinse, repeat' ad infinitum.
13:27 asciilifeform thimbronion: shutting down an exchange is a traditional , low-effort means for usg to score some coin
13:28 asciilifeform ( recall e.g. 'btc-e' )
13:28 thimbronion But shutting down casinos makes it harder to flood the market with paper btc.
13:29 asciilifeform nah. notion is to drive chumps to the remaining, properly usgistic casinos. (e.g. 'coinbase')
13:29 asciilifeform y'know, the ones where 'send passport photo and cockprints if you want to keep yer balance' etc
13:30 thimbronion Ah - didn't know you could shortsell on coinbase.
13:30 asciilifeform last i knew you couldn't (at least not via the public knobs) . at least Officially .
13:30 asciilifeform it's the other kind of casino.
13:32 asciilifeform usg would prefer that shortselling happen via 'paper btc' at nasdaq etc . where they can directly manipulate (e.g. 'today terrorism temperature is high, trading is closed!')
13:36 thimbronion asciilifeform: for sure. we shall find out soon if that strategy plays out as they expect.
13:37 asciilifeform worked for ~3y so far .
13:41 thimbronion Indeed, however the system is not in stasis, due to the 4 year halvings.
13:41 asciilifeform thimbronion: the halvings dun seem to have any macroscopic effect on ~anyffin
13:42 * asciilifeform recalls, before erry single one, 'repent, sinners, halvingocalypse approaches', followed by 0 effect visible to unarmed eye
13:42 thimbronion Decrease in supply has no effect on price?
13:43 thimbronion Either the fake supply must be increased, or demand must go down.
13:43 asciilifeform 0, because most coin simply does not circulate
13:43 snsabot (asciilifeform) 2020-05-05 asciilifeform: it worx because there's a neverending supply of a) dumb shits who see 'paper gold' as == to actual b) greedy shits who want 'leverage'
13:43 thimbronion I can't imagine there's no cost even to creating a fake supply. My argument is simply that the system is not in stasis.
13:44 thimbronion So things can't continue as they are forever.
13:44 asciilifeform the fake supply is increased . and the cost is paid by the 'leverage' idjits , of whom apparently inexhaustible supply .
13:45 asciilifeform nuffin continues 'forever', entirely true. but can continue for rather long time. e.g. usd-au exch rate has been under control via this mechanism for ~century .
13:45 asciilifeform ( via 'paper gold' method. )
13:46 thimbronion Isn't the price of a house in gold roughly the same as 100 years ago?
13:46 thimbronion er, let's say, a steak
13:46 thimbronion house isn't same house as 100 years ago.
13:47 thimbronion steak admittedly also not the same
13:47 asciilifeform could ask q 'price of sq. metre in $city' or similar, but not trivial to answer
13:48 asciilifeform per this randomly-picked www, doesn't look like a straight line at all..
13:50 thimbronion Not a straight line, but also it appears that a house is cheaper in gold today than 100 years ago.
13:50 asciilifeform and indeed you ~cannot buy the steak of 100y ago -- for any amt of $ -- today (i.e. w/ 0 feedlot, antibiotic, sr-90, etc)
13:52 thimbronion The real battle may simply be how much it costs to convince people that they're not living in filth and destitution.
13:53 asciilifeform filth, destitution, and, not unimportantly, debt
13:53 asciilifeform in usa, even 50y ago, was not uncommon to pay off house 100% in 5-10y
13:54 thimbronion Indeed, the land has been stolen.
13:54 thimbronion Most have not yet realized.
13:55 thimbronion transition from acting like a slave but not knowing it and knowing it will be interesting.
13:56 asciilifeform on the contrary, afaik plenty of folx in usa realized.
13:57 asciilifeform many even in 1930s realized. 100% of reactions (e.g. 'elected fdr') simply deepened the hole. as typically happens w/ idjit mass .
13:58 thimbronion No successful peasant revolution, ever.
13:59 asciilifeform not even possible to draw an other than comedic ~picture~ of one. it's rather like to ask for 'successful child revolution'
14:03 thimbronion asciilifeform: and I think I'm essentially in agreement with you wrt sandwich zeros and btc zeros, which is why I've made at least some efforts to get as far away from civilization as possible. Ultimately may not be enough, but I am making an effort.
14:03 thimbronion Will treasure every additional month/year of freedom I can extract.
~ 40 minutes ~
14:44 asciilifeform thimbronion: 1 other boojum re 'costs of house' -- ~half of the total cost of 30y credit , is the interest. which 'because reasons!111' not reflected in ~any 'historic prices' wank page , at all
14:45 thimbronion asciilifeform: good point - I guess only Chinese with suitcases of cash are paying the 1920 price.
14:45 asciilifeform a 300k$ house, to someone with 300k$ in his pocket, costs $300k$ (+tax etc) . but to typicalplebe, ~600k$ (plus a substantial chance of paying for 29y and ending up w/ 0 house, because lost job & defaulted )
14:47 thimbronion Also property tax, which I assume is a lot higher now.
~ 5 hours 19 minutes ~
20:07 thimbronion lekythion project status: Spent the weekend doing the work to resolve several issues working together to cause the lisp image to hang while attemping to download urls in the log. Pro-tip: don't try to download content of indeterminate size into memory. Also spent some time figuring out how to organize a cl project so as to ease the pain of restarting the system.
20:10 thimbronion alethepedia project status: gregorynyssa has done some work implement some heuristics to generate a map of encyclopedia entries by line number in a db. There is more work yet to be done as the heuristics have yet to be applied to all available volumes.
~ 1 hours 24 minutes ~
21:34 gregorynyssa << I can set up a temporary subdomain to host the intermediate results of the analysis.
21:34 snsabot Logged on 2020-10-11 20:10:14 thimbronion: alethepedia project status: gregorynyssa has done some work implement some heuristics to generate a map of encyclopedia entries by line number in a db. There is more work yet to be done as the heuristics have yet to be applied to all available volumes.
21:35 gregorynyssa << G Edward Griffin made this precise point in one of his videos. back in ancient Rome, an ounce of gold was worth a tunic, leather belt, and pair of sandals. today, it is worth a suit, a belt, and a pair of Oxfords.
21:35 snsabot Logged on 2020-10-11 13:46:19 thimbronion: Isn't the price of a house in gold roughly the same as 100 years ago?
21:38 gregorynyssa Using username "root".
21:38 gregorynyssa root@'s password:
21:38 gregorynyssa Access denied
21:38 gregorynyssa root@'s password:
21:38 gregorynyssa Access denied
21:38 gregorynyssa root@'s password:
21:43 gregorynyssa there is some problem with my client. sorry.
~ 54 minutes ~
22:37 thimbronion gregorynyssa: no worries
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