Show Idle (>14 d.) Chans

← 2022-06-01 | 2022-06-03 →
01:14 awt
~ 27 minutes ~
01:42 shinohai Color me shocked.
01:43 awt I AM a bit shocked
01:44 awt Not that insider trading was happening, obv.
~ 12 hours 20 minutes ~
14:04 awt << 2009 - 2020
14:04 bitbot Logged on 2022-06-01 21:20:00 asciilifeform: signpost: cheapcoinz when!
14:08 shinohai $ticker btc usd
14:09 busybot Current BTC price in USD: $29901.98
14:09 shinohai Back below 30k!
14:12 awt I say bottom was in at 26k. If I'm wrong I'll implement Pest in Javascript.
14:16 awt jonsykkel: I've been hearing rumors that Swedes are extremely reluctant to feed their guests (if they ever have them). Have you also heard this?
14:19 jonsykkel lol, cant say i have. that said, only time i ever visited a swede, the swede in question did not feed me
14:19 awt lol
~ 35 minutes ~
14:55 shinohai lol @ pest in js
14:55 awt Should make it worse: IE6 compatibility required
14:56 billymg i was actually going to write my pest client in JS
14:56 billymg and call it jest
14:56 awt lol sorry jest is taken
14:56 billymg i know but that doesn't matter
~ 57 minutes ~
15:53 signpost awt: well, I bought then too.
15:54 signpost but near-term it's been tracking the nasdaq almost perfectly, so unless you think the bottom is in for stonks, I'd get your javascripts ready.
16:08 awt signpost: npm at the ready
16:09 awt j/k no way in hell I'm writing more js
16:10 signpost lol, I think I've done enough time in those mines for one lifetime too.
~ 1 hours 1 minutes ~
17:11 asciilifeform << at some pt the 'institutional' moneys, hypothetically, will gtfo, and what remains would be the 'genuine' exch rate
17:11 bitbot Logged on 2022-06-02 15:54:43 signpost[asciilifeform]: but near-term it's been tracking the nasdaq almost perfectly, so unless you think the bottom is in for stonks, I'd get your javascripts ready.
~ 31 minutes ~
17:42 asciilifeform ... objective of the 'institutional' scum is simple as a hammer: 1) pump it up, so that 1a) btc-usd dun track actual-inflation 1b) can dump it periodically, inducing morons (esp. of the 'leveraged' variety) to panic sell 2) let'em load up on the cheap, after each such panic.
17:44 asciilifeform there's likely a 3) keep up volatility to maximally inhbit honest commerce.
17:44 asciilifeform *inhibit
17:45 billymg actual commerce in btc also punished by threat of jail if you're not "licensed"
17:46 asciilifeform billymg: wotless commerce at any rate.
17:48 billymg which is any commerce of any scale
17:48 * asciilifeform must disagree
17:49 asciilifeform hawala scales as much as anyone could want.
17:49 asciilifeform 'it worx if you work it'
17:50 billymg isn't there still a cap?
17:50 bitbot (asciilifeform) 2022-02-01 asciilifeform: from asciilifeform's pov, a >dunbar-sized wot, where such 'automations' seem useful, is an atrocity to begin with
17:51 asciilifeform bitbot: l2/l3 from a dunbaristic wot is large enuff
17:51 asciilifeform err, billymg
17:51 billymg ah, yeah, if you include l2 and l3 that's true
17:51 billymg makes sense
17:52 asciilifeform nor are you stuck dealing with'em directly. hypothetically, if yer trafficing plutonium, mediate through l1.
17:53 awt << there is nowhere to gtfo to. Also this is the best environment for btc we've yet seen.
17:53 bitbot Logged on 2022-06-02 17:11:46 asciilifeform: << at some pt the 'institutional' moneys, hypothetically, will gtfo, and what remains would be the 'genuine' exch rate
17:53 asciilifeform from one pov, is a hilarious twist on the usg newspeak 'know yer customer'. if you ~actually~ 'know yer customer`, yer moar or less impenetrable to reich.
17:53 billymg asciilifeform: heh, makes for a good meme opportunity
17:54 billymg deedbot, pest, v, etc. are KYC-only!
17:54 billymg know-your-customer|contact|coder
17:55 asciilifeform would hasten to add tho, that what folx are jailed for in the reich aint contrabandism per se, but 'being rich without a license'. if yer conspicuously loaded and it was simply because found buried treasure, some article in penal code will be found for you.
17:55 billymg 'spending without giving them a cut'
17:57 asciilifeform iirc mp had a piece re subj. is simple predator-prey relationship, lizards predate on uppity plebes who 'think they're somebodies' simply because came across some dough somewhere.
17:58 asciilifeform starting with 50+% taxation (usa) and ending with confiscations on trumped-up charges etc
17:58 awt asciilifeform: there is a case to be made that btc won't moon moon until enough lizards have their fill.
17:59 asciilifeform awt: there's more than one variant of 'moon', and not all possible 'moons' are a good time arguably
18:00 billymg awt: that's what seems most likely to me. i think we're more or less at the bottom, maybe with some brief dips to the low 20s, but otherwise range here for another 3-5 months
18:00 billymg too cheap and plebs can afford to load up, current range seems like maximum pain plus ideal for lizards (and no one else) to meaningfully load up
18:02 awt billymg: IMO 22-23k would be a dip BELOW the 2017 ath in real terms which would be unprecedented. Certainly doesn't mean it's not possible.
18:02 billymg asciilifeform: bitcoin has grown many zeros already in the time that sandwich only doubled
18:04 billymg awt: yeah, think if it gets that low it would be very brief, like the march 2020 covid dip
18:05 billymg !. version
18:05 bitbot I am bot version 733831.
18:06 billymg the reason why asciilifeform's recent nsa log links not adding backlinks btw
18:06 bitbot (asciilifeform) 2022-06-02 bitbot: I am bot version 734773.
18:06 bitbot Logged on 2022-06-02 18:05:40 bitbot: I am bot version 733831.
18:07 billymg i never restarted the pest bot with that fix
18:07 billymg will get them in another backfill run
18:12 asciilifeform awt: recall the march 2020 dip
18:12 asciilifeform ( what was it, to 3k ? )
18:13 asciilifeform quite effective plunder of the 'weak hands', and somehow quickly forgotten
18:14 asciilifeform << was 'piling up zeros' until '17, when the 'institutionals' found their current pill against this
18:14 bitbot Logged on 2022-06-02 18:02:26 billymg: asciilifeform: bitcoin has grown many zeros already in the time that sandwich only doubled
18:15 asciilifeform their current toolkit includes also shitcoin proliferation (yet anuther way to divert usd away from uncontrolled pumping of btc by 'humans')
18:15 awt << yes but even that was not below previous ATH.
18:15 bitbot Logged on 2022-06-02 18:12:50 asciilifeform: ( what was it, to 3k ? )
18:16 billymg right, the mega covid dump was still 3x previous ATH, currently sitting at 1.5x previous ATH (not adjusting for covid money printing)
18:17 asciilifeform billymg: can elaborate plox? 'ath' -- all time high ?
18:17 billymg yes
18:17 asciilifeform iirc currently ath == ~70k
18:18 billymg hence 'previous' ATH, as opposed to 'most recent' or 'current'
18:18 billymg which would be 20k in 2017
18:18 billymg and after the 2017 ATH, previous ATH was ~1k from 2013
18:18 asciilifeform a
18:19 * asciilifeform not 100% clear on the significance of this metric, however
18:19 billymg bitcoin, after reaching a new ATH, has never dumped below it's previous ATH
18:19 billymg its*
18:20 awt Could happen. Lots of folks could possibly have longs predicated on this "rule"
18:20 billymg obviously, yes, sample size of around 3-4
18:21 asciilifeform this is 'numerologically' appealing , but asciilifeform knows of no fundamental reason why not at whatever time 'dip below last peak'
18:21 asciilifeform leveragescum and their 'longs' actually make specifically for appealing target to 'break' the rule by whatever artificial means
18:21 billymg asciilifeform, awt: yeah, i could see lizards dump to 19k to "zomg unprecedented! bitcoin dead!"
18:21 asciilifeform for instance.
18:22 awt asciilifeform: likely time for that to happen would not be when regime is not wrecking the global financial system and getting wrecked on all fronts itself
18:22 asciilifeform precisely when wrecking, why not
18:22 awt *IS wrecking, I meant
18:23 asciilifeform for that matter, they can make virtually any desired numbers emerge from the goxes, whenever ( 'no actual btc was harmed in the making of this film' etc )
18:23 billymg big question for me is still whether or not china and russia want to load up on btc
18:24 awt But in anycase - don't want to be accused of technical analysisism
18:24 billymg last i heard china "unbanned" bitcoin again recently
18:24 asciilifeform billymg: near as can tell, they closely resemble the anglo reich in addiction to printing press and 'monetary policy'
18:24 awt billymg: also some evidence miners still mining there
18:25 asciilifeform ... on top of this, most btc, from pov of ru/cn, is in hands of foreign devils, and so often enuff seen there as 'instrument of reich'
18:25 billymg asciilifeform: which would mean they'd equally want to hoard real assets for themselves, while giving their subjects paper
18:25 billymg asciilifeform: that's what i was wondering
18:26 billymg e.g. does satoshi's stash belong to the nsa/cia
18:26 asciilifeform from orc pov, 'real assets' are e.g. oilfields, rather than btc ( which from quasiliterate orc pov is difficult to distinguish from garden-variety 'paper' , esp. when the only kinda btc they're even aware of to start with is the paper/goxcoin variety )
18:26 billymg or do china/russia think it does
18:26 asciilifeform billymg: from their pov, prolly suffices that it belongs to unknown foreigners, to be 'guilty until proven innocent' of cia
18:28 awt asciilifeform: in that case, the more it's suppressed in the reich, more evidence it's not compromised.
18:28 awt in the alternative scenario, US will pump it
18:29 asciilifeform reich often enuff pantomimes 'suppress' constructively. e.g. the '17--present 'encryption wank' (concerning wholly faux cryptosystems) to encourage use of various 'coloured phones' ; or the play-pretend 'war on dope' etc
18:29 asciilifeform difficult to imagine that crowned heads entirely unaware.
18:30 awt asciilifeform: certainly however price is a different matter
18:30 awt Costs
18:31 asciilifeform the exch rate aint even a scalar. (i.e. it's one thing if your contact is via 'let's load a gox and see exch rate', entirely other if you want to buy coin in serious qty; yet anuther if you want to buy trb-compat. coin; etc )
18:33 billymg goxes still sell trb-compat. coin, dunno about the quantity though
18:33 asciilifeform theoretically
18:34 billymg yeah, i mean you can at a minimum still log in, buy 100 bux worth, and transfer to a 1-address
18:34 asciilifeform in practice good chance of 'sorry, withdrawal only worx if yer a++ gold star kyc approved, please mail the following photos of yer arse and wait 6mo' etc
18:34 asciilifeform see what happens when try and buy 100k$ worth.
18:34 billymg asciilifeform: yeah, that's a given at ~100% of goxes these days
18:34 billymg even for the 100 bux amount
18:35 billymg and yeah, no idea how it works if you want to transfer $100k worth to a 1-address
18:35 awt Incidentally re: kyc tax harassment - paid massive federal tax bill this year but of course got a letter back saying I owe 1000 bux because of the stimmi cheques.
18:36 asciilifeform awt: good % of tax is collected, deliberately, in precisely this way
18:36 asciilifeform 'you owe $+diff + interest, kthx'
18:36 billymg awt: i got a letter of harassment from NY asking when i moved to texas and when i sold $company_stock
18:36 awt billymg: lovely. I gotta get out of california.
18:38 billymg awt: iirc there were headlines of california passing (or perhaps only wanting to pass) law that collects gains for x years even after you move out
18:38 billymg collects tax*
18:38 awt billymg: not passed but yes
18:39 asciilifeform will be interesting when they decree that e.g. frenchmen owe californistan tax 'because walked by a crapple store and partook of the glory of californireich' or the like
18:41 billymg asciilifeform: doesn't it currently work the other way around? eureich wanting to tax california companies because "give us some of that internet money"
18:41 asciilifeform billymg: formally they have subsidiaries there, neh
18:42 asciilifeform ( as did e.g. google in ru until recently bankrupt from fines )
18:42 billymg was referring to this:
18:44 asciilifeform they do biz there, neh
18:44 asciilifeform (and presumably +ev, or would pack it)
18:46 billymg i guess facebook does biz there in the sense of frenchmen can log into their facebook accounts and see ads
18:47 asciilifeform fr ads, paid for in fr, neh
18:47 * billymg now remembers the early days of the web in the US when online shopping somehow exempt from sales tax
18:48 billymg asciilifeform: yeah, i suppose it's justifiable, as far as any tax is
~ 45 minutes ~
19:33 asciilifeform simply, one pays a tax when can't escape. whether 'justifiable' or not.
~ 3 hours 9 minutes ~
22:43 signpost << I don't think anyting like this can be relied upon.
22:43 bitbot Logged on 2022-06-02 18:19:54 billymg: bitcoin, after reaching a new ATH, has never dumped below it's previous ATH
22:45 signpost "every day I've ever been alive, I've never died!"
22:46 * signpost doesn't claim to know what's going to happen either.
22:46 signpost currency crisis in USD could create such buying pressure as to dwarf all that came before it.
22:47 signpost or it could panic institutions into gold and land instead.
22:49 signpost not a terrible idea to position for all of these.
22:53 signpost << they have "prime brokerage" desks which do what the customer wants, proportional to the customer's girth.
22:53 bitbot Logged on 2022-06-02 18:33:32 billymg: goxes still sell trb-compat. coin, dunno about the quantity though
22:54 signpost << this is what my tea leaves suggest too.
22:54 bitbot Logged on 2022-06-02 18:00:00 billymg: awt: that's what seems most likely to me. i think we're more or less at the bottom, maybe with some brief dips to the low 20s, but otherwise range here for another 3-5 months
22:56 signpost << how do you know this?
22:56 bitbot Logged on 2022-06-02 18:04:52 billymg: awt: yeah, think if it gets that low it would be very brief, like the march 2020 covid dip
22:56 signpost the 2000 and 2008 crashes went on for years.
22:59 signpost and these did not involve intentional sabotage of global trade of the scale that has occurred in the last few years.
23:00 signpost govt can print as much money as they like; if products are not moving, workers for the companies making them are not being paid.
23:02 * signpost already seeing layoffs in the news, and it's pretty early if this is a "big" market collapse.
23:07 billymg << agreed and wasn't' suggesting that it could, only illustrating the observed pattern up to present day
23:07 bitbot Logged on 2022-06-02 22:43:36 signpost[asciilifeform]: << I don't think anyting like this can be relied upon.
23:08 billymg << was only talking about btc here, not the broader market. and i guess i don't know, just a hunch as to how much i think they can suppress it
23:08 bitbot Logged on 2022-06-02 22:56:07 signpost[asciilifeform]: << how do you know this?
23:09 signpost what I'm grunting at is the larger civilizational machine within which bitcoin resides looks broken.
23:09 * signpost has been trying to get a graph to share from koyfin but that, also, busted, lol
23:11 signpost anyway, in 08 the "official" unemployment rate made it to ~10%, in the covid sabotage ~15%, and these are the fake numbers.
23:11 * signpost checks what shadowstats says
23:12 signpost after every big crash they've fiddled interest rates downward, and it appears to be taking longer for employment to recover, and lower rates.
23:13 signpost the system looks trapped. unemployment means chaos in the streets, and low interest rates means inflation, which means unemployment, which means.
23:13 signpost it's this part that would perhaps supply the "this time will be different" for btc, which has otherwise spent most of its life in a mega-bull-run-of-everything.
23:20 billymg in tru collapse scenario only food, ammo, and reliable neighbors count for anything. if that happens, well, will be interesting. and i have nfi what the situation would be like here in cr or how long i'd survive
23:21 billymg i'd still keep my keys safe, in case the world makes it out the other side, but yeah, i guess priorities would change pretty quick
23:21 billymg i also don't really see that happening
23:23 billymg newspapers could print "you must starve yourself to death to save the black children" and people would do it -- problem solved, more resources to go around for those remaining
23:25 signpost I'm not saying mad max, just saying we're not even to 08 levels of pain yet. people just have a short memory.
23:25 signpost and I don't think 1930s levels of pain are off the table.
23:27 signpost going back to the patterns of past bubble cycles, the drawdowns of the last two were about 80%. 2011 came down by >90%.
23:27 signpost we're at like -50% right now.
23:28 signpost with a shittier world. doesn't make sense that the pain's over. but I don't know shit, just talking here.
23:28 billymg signpost: talking btc or also also s&p, nasdaq, etc.?
23:29 billymg s/also also/also
23:30 billymg my thought on 80-90% drawdown is that it won't happen because the run up, from bottom to top, wasn't as high. in 2017 it was 100x ($200 to $20k)
23:31 billymg i.e. it's been dampened in both directions
23:32 signpost yeah, that's possible
23:33 signpost re: s&p inflation devours margins and causes unemployment, which kills spending.
23:33 signpost maybe they introduce UBI and see how long that holds together.
23:34 * signpost just doesn't intend to panic if BTC falls further. on the contrary.
23:39 billymg UBI would be lulzy, given how the average joe spent his stimulus check in 2020
23:44 awt signpost: job market is indeed toast
23:45 awt Music stopped a few weeks ago
23:46 awt Most have no savings
23:48 asciilifeform awt: folx w/ 0 saving at least not have to grimace as these dissolve into vapour as printingpress goes ever brr
23:48 awt Stage is set for either massive inflation or formal bank nationalization
23:48 asciilifeform reich banks already de-facto nationalized in '08 episode
23:48 awt Thus the "formal"
23:49 asciilifeform how much diff would 'formal' make
23:49 awt asciilifeform: cbdc
23:50 * asciilifeform never grasped what diff these'd make. there's already a centrally-operated electro-usd, has been for half century+
23:51 asciilifeform for that matter, iirc various shitholes issued'em already, and they lived & died exactly like regular shitcoins
23:52 asciilifeform << ~half of adult popul. in usa already 'ubi'
23:52 bitbot Logged on 2022-06-02 23:33:57 signpost[asciilifeform]: maybe they introduce UBI and see how long that holds together.
23:53 signpost difference of degree only, but so is blood loss for a while.
23:54 asciilifeform sumbody gotta physically maintain the panem et circenses for the 'ubi' sads
23:54 asciilifeform (not even to mention the reptilian yachts)
23:55 signpost only claim I'm making is that we've had crashes in the past, and this one isn't bad yet by their standards.
23:56 awt Arguable that given the rate of inflation there was no recovery
23:57 asciilifeform in other shitholes, inflation eventually undone by devaluation ('let's drop a zero on the banknotes', 'trade up to 1000 old rubles for new per meatsack by next month' etc)
23:57 signpost yeah, this I believe is what the cdbc account at the fed is meant to make easy.
23:57 asciilifeform in usa no ready path to this, as buying power of usd in fact propped up by foreign chumps ~exclusively
23:58 signpost stimmies and demurrage
23:58 signpost if I spelled the latter correctly
23:58 asciilifeform + the mexican cash thing..
23:58 * signpost brb
23:59 asciilifeform cancel paper benjie -- the asphalt layers, fruit pickers, etc. go the fuck home to aztlan
← 2022-06-01 | 2022-06-03 →