#pest | 2022-06-02

http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006018 << at some pt the 'institutional' moneys, hypothetically, will gtfo, and what remains would be the 'genuine' exch rate

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17:11

bitbot

Logged on 2022-06-02 15:54:43 signpost[asciilifeform]: but near-term it's been tracking the nasdaq almost perfectly, so unless you think the bottom is in for stonks, I'd get your javascripts ready.

~ 31 minutes ~

17:42

asciilifeform

... objective of the 'institutional' scum is simple as a hammer: 1) pump it up, so that 1a) btc-usd dun track actual-inflation 1b) can dump it periodically, inducing morons (esp. of the 'leveraged' variety) to panic sell 2) let'em load up on the cheap, after each such panic.

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17:44

asciilifeform

there's likely a 3) keep up volatility to maximally inhbit honest commerce.

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17:44

asciilifeform

*inhibit

17:45

billymg

actual commerce in btc also punished by threat of jail if you're not "licensed"

17:46

asciilifeform

billymg: wotless commerce at any rate.

17:48

billymg

which is any commerce of any scale

17:48

*

asciilifeform must disagree

17:49

asciilifeform

hawala scales as much as anyone could want.

17:49

asciilifeform

'it worx if you work it'

17:50

billymg

isn't there still a cap?

17:50

bitbot

(asciilifeform) 2022-02-01 asciilifeform: from asciilifeform's pov, a >dunbar-sized wot, where such 'automations' seem useful, is an atrocity to begin with

17:51

asciilifeform

bitbot: l2/l3 from a dunbaristic wot is large enuff

17:51

asciilifeform

err, billymg

17:51

billymg

ah, yeah, if you include l2 and l3 that's true

17:51

billymg

makes sense

17:52

asciilifeform

nor are you stuck dealing with'em directly. hypothetically, if yer trafficing plutonium, mediate through l1.

17:53

awt

http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006022 << there is nowhere to gtfo to. Also this is the best environment for btc we've yet seen.

17:53

bitbot

Logged on 2022-06-02 17:11:46 asciilifeform: http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006018 << at some pt the 'institutional' moneys, hypothetically, will gtfo, and what remains would be the 'genuine' exch rate

17:53

asciilifeform

from one pov, is a hilarious twist on the usg newspeak 'know yer customer'. if you ~actually~ 'know yer customer`, yer moar or less impenetrable to reich.

17:53

billymg

asciilifeform: heh, makes for a good meme opportunity

17:54

billymg

deedbot, pest, v, etc. are KYC-only!

17:54

billymg

know-your-customer|contact|coder

17:55

asciilifeform

would hasten to add tho, that what folx are jailed for in the reich aint contrabandism per se, but 'being rich without a license'. if yer conspicuously loaded and it was simply because found buried treasure, some article in penal code will be found for you.

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17:55

billymg

'spending without giving them a cut'

17:57

asciilifeform

iirc mp had a piece re subj. is simple predator-prey relationship, lizards predate on uppity plebes who 'think they're somebodies' simply because came across some dough somewhere.

17:58

asciilifeform

starting with 50+% taxation (usa) and ending with confiscations on trumped-up charges etc

17:58

awt

asciilifeform: there is a case to be made that btc won't moon moon until enough lizards have their fill.

17:59

asciilifeform

awt: there's more than one variant of 'moon', and not all possible 'moons' are a good time arguably

18:00

billymg

awt: that's what seems most likely to me. i think we're more or less at the bottom, maybe with some brief dips to the low 20s, but otherwise range here for another 3-5 months

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18:00

billymg

too cheap and plebs can afford to load up, current range seems like maximum pain plus ideal for lizards (and no one else) to meaningfully load up

18:02

awt

billymg: IMO 22-23k would be a dip BELOW the 2017 ath in real terms which would be unprecedented. Certainly doesn't mean it's not possible.

18:02

billymg

asciilifeform: bitcoin has grown many zeros already in the time that sandwich only doubled

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18:04

billymg

awt: yeah, think if it gets that low it would be very brief, like the march 2020 covid dip

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18:05

billymg

!. version

18:05

bitbot

I am bot version 733831.

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18:06

billymg

the reason why asciilifeform's recent nsa log links not adding backlinks btw

18:06

bitbot

(asciilifeform) 2022-06-02 bitbot: I am bot version 734773.

18:06

bitbot

Logged on 2022-06-02 18:05:40 bitbot: I am bot version 733831.

18:07

billymg

i never restarted the pest bot with that fix

18:07

billymg

will get them in another backfill run

18:12

asciilifeform

awt: recall the march 2020 dip

18:12

asciilifeform

( what was it, to 3k ? )

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18:13

asciilifeform

quite effective plunder of the 'weak hands', and somehow quickly forgotten

18:14

asciilifeform

http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006055 << was 'piling up zeros' until '17, when the 'institutionals' found their current pill against this

18:14

bitbot

Logged on 2022-06-02 18:02:26 billymg: asciilifeform: bitcoin has grown many zeros already in the time that sandwich only doubled

18:15

asciilifeform

their current toolkit includes also shitcoin proliferation (yet anuther way to divert usd away from uncontrolled pumping of btc by 'humans')

18:15

awt

http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006065 << yes but even that was not below previous ATH.

18:15

bitbot

Logged on 2022-06-02 18:12:50 asciilifeform: ( what was it, to 3k ? )

18:16

billymg

right, the mega covid dump was still 3x previous ATH, currently sitting at 1.5x previous ATH (not adjusting for covid money printing)

18:17

asciilifeform

billymg: can elaborate plox? 'ath' -- all time high ?

18:17

billymg

yes

18:17

asciilifeform

iirc currently ath == ~70k

18:18

billymg

hence 'previous' ATH, as opposed to 'most recent' or 'current'

18:18

billymg

which would be 20k in 2017

18:18

billymg

and after the 2017 ATH, previous ATH was ~1k from 2013

18:18

asciilifeform

a

18:19

*

asciilifeform not 100% clear on the significance of this metric, however

18:19

billymg

bitcoin, after reaching a new ATH, has never dumped below it's previous ATH

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18:19

billymg

its*

18:20

awt

Could happen. Lots of folks could possibly have longs predicated on this "rule"

18:20

billymg

obviously, yes, sample size of around 3-4

18:21

asciilifeform

this is 'numerologically' appealing , but asciilifeform knows of no fundamental reason why not at whatever time 'dip below last peak'

18:21

asciilifeform

leveragescum and their 'longs' actually make specifically for appealing target to 'break' the rule by whatever artificial means

18:21

billymg

asciilifeform, awt: yeah, i could see lizards dump to 19k to "zomg unprecedented! bitcoin dead!"

18:21

asciilifeform

for instance.

18:22

awt

asciilifeform: likely time for that to happen would not be when regime is not wrecking the global financial system and getting wrecked on all fronts itself

18:22

asciilifeform

precisely when wrecking, why not

18:22

awt

*IS wrecking, I meant

18:23

asciilifeform

for that matter, they can make virtually any desired numbers emerge from the goxes, whenever ( 'no actual btc was harmed in the making of this film' etc )

18:23

billymg

big question for me is still whether or not china and russia want to load up on btc

18:24

awt

But in anycase - don't want to be accused of technical analysisism

18:24

billymg

last i heard china "unbanned" bitcoin again recently

18:24

asciilifeform

billymg: near as can tell, they closely resemble the anglo reich in addiction to printing press and 'monetary policy'

18:24

awt

billymg: also some evidence miners still mining there

18:25

asciilifeform

... on top of this, most btc, from pov of ru/cn, is in hands of foreign devils, and so often enuff seen there as 'instrument of reich'

18:25

billymg

asciilifeform: which would mean they'd equally want to hoard real assets for themselves, while giving their subjects paper

18:25

billymg

asciilifeform: that's what i was wondering

18:26

billymg

e.g. does satoshi's stash belong to the nsa/cia

18:26

asciilifeform

from orc pov, 'real assets' are e.g. oilfields, rather than btc ( which from quasiliterate orc pov is difficult to distinguish from garden-variety 'paper' , esp. when the only kinda btc they're even aware of to start with is the paper/goxcoin variety )

18:26

billymg

or do china/russia think it does

18:26

asciilifeform

billymg: from their pov, prolly suffices that it belongs to unknown foreigners, to be 'guilty until proven innocent' of cia

18:28

awt

asciilifeform: in that case, the more it's suppressed in the reich, more evidence it's not compromised.

18:28

awt

in the alternative scenario, US will pump it

18:29

asciilifeform

reich often enuff pantomimes 'suppress' constructively. e.g. the '17--present 'encryption wank' (concerning wholly faux cryptosystems) to encourage use of various 'coloured phones' ; or the play-pretend 'war on dope' etc

18:29

asciilifeform

difficult to imagine that crowned heads entirely unaware.

18:30

awt

asciilifeform: certainly however price is a different matter

18:30

awt

Costs

18:31

asciilifeform

the exch rate aint even a scalar. (i.e. it's one thing if your contact is via 'let's load a gox and see exch rate', entirely other if you want to buy coin in serious qty; yet anuther if you want to buy trb-compat. coin; etc )

18:33

billymg

goxes still sell trb-compat. coin, dunno about the quantity though

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18:33

asciilifeform

theoretically

18:34

billymg

yeah, i mean you can at a minimum still log in, buy 100 bux worth, and transfer to a 1-address

18:34

asciilifeform

in practice good chance of 'sorry, withdrawal only worx if yer a++ gold star kyc approved, please mail the following photos of yer arse and wait 6mo' etc

18:34

asciilifeform

see what happens when try and buy 100k$ worth.

18:34

billymg

asciilifeform: yeah, that's a given at ~100% of goxes these days

18:34

billymg

even for the 100 bux amount

18:35

billymg

and yeah, no idea how it works if you want to transfer $100k worth to a 1-address

18:35

awt

Incidentally re: kyc tax harassment - paid massive federal tax bill this year but of course got a letter back saying I owe 1000 bux because of the stimmi cheques.

18:36

asciilifeform

awt: good % of tax is collected, deliberately, in precisely this way

18:36

asciilifeform

'you owe $+diff + interest, kthx'

18:36

billymg

awt: i got a letter of harassment from NY asking when i moved to texas and when i sold $company_stock

18:36

awt

billymg: lovely. I gotta get out of california.

18:38

billymg

awt: iirc there were headlines of california passing (or perhaps only wanting to pass) law that collects gains for x years even after you move out

18:38

billymg

collects tax*

18:38

awt

billymg: not passed but yes

18:39

asciilifeform

will be interesting when they decree that e.g. frenchmen owe californistan tax 'because walked by a crapple store and partook of the glory of californireich' or the like

18:41

billymg

asciilifeform: doesn't it currently work the other way around? eureich wanting to tax california companies because "give us some of that internet money"

18:41

asciilifeform

billymg: formally they have subsidiaries there, neh

18:42

asciilifeform

( as did e.g. google in ru until recently bankrupt from fines )

18:42

billymg

was referring to this: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-usa-tax-idUSKBN28522M

18:44

asciilifeform

they do biz there, neh

18:44

asciilifeform

(and presumably +ev, or would pack it)

18:46

billymg

i guess facebook does biz there in the sense of frenchmen can log into their facebook accounts and see ads

18:47

asciilifeform

fr ads, paid for in fr, neh

18:47

*

billymg now remembers the early days of the web in the US when online shopping somehow exempt from sales tax

18:48

billymg

asciilifeform: yeah, i suppose it's justifiable, as far as any tax is

~ 45 minutes ~

19:33

asciilifeform

simply, one pays a tax when can't escape. whether 'justifiable' or not.

~ 3 hours 9 minutes ~

22:43

signpost

http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006081 << I don't think anyting like this can be relied upon.

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22:43

bitbot

Logged on 2022-06-02 18:19:54 billymg: bitcoin, after reaching a new ATH, has never dumped below it's previous ATH

22:45

signpost

"every day I've ever been alive, I've never died!"

22:46

*

signpost doesn't claim to know what's going to happen either.

22:46

signpost

currency crisis in USD could create such buying pressure as to dwarf all that came before it.

22:47

signpost

or it could panic institutions into gold and land instead.

22:49

signpost

not a terrible idea to position for all of these.

22:53

signpost

http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006112 << they have "prime brokerage" desks which do what the customer wants, proportional to the customer's girth.

22:53

bitbot

Logged on 2022-06-02 18:33:32 billymg: goxes still sell trb-compat. coin, dunno about the quantity though

22:54

signpost

http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006052 << this is what my tea leaves suggest too.

22:54

bitbot

Logged on 2022-06-02 18:00:00 billymg: awt: that's what seems most likely to me. i think we're more or less at the bottom, maybe with some brief dips to the low 20s, but otherwise range here for another 3-5 months

22:56

signpost

http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006056 << how do you know this?

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22:56

bitbot

Logged on 2022-06-02 18:04:52 billymg: awt: yeah, think if it gets that low it would be very brief, like the march 2020 covid dip

22:56

signpost

the 2000 and 2008 crashes went on for years.

22:59

signpost

and these did not involve intentional sabotage of global trade of the scale that has occurred in the last few years.

23:00

signpost

govt can print as much money as they like; if products are not moving, workers for the companies making them are not being paid.

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23:02

*

signpost already seeing layoffs in the news, and it's pretty early if this is a "big" market collapse.

23:07

billymg

http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006140 << agreed and wasn't' suggesting that it could, only illustrating the observed pattern up to present day

23:07

bitbot

Logged on 2022-06-02 22:43:36 signpost[asciilifeform]: http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006081 << I don't think anyting like this can be relied upon.

23:08

billymg

http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006151 << was only talking about btc here, not the broader market. and i guess i don't know, just a hunch as to how much i think they can suppress it

23:08

bitbot

Logged on 2022-06-02 22:56:07 signpost[asciilifeform]: http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006056 << how do you know this?

23:09

signpost

what I'm grunting at is the larger civilizational machine within which bitcoin resides looks broken.

23:09

*

signpost has been trying to get a graph to share from koyfin but that, also, busted, lol

23:11

signpost

anyway, in 08 the "official" unemployment rate made it to ~10%, in the covid sabotage ~15%, and these are the fake numbers.

23:11

*

signpost checks what shadowstats says

23:12

signpost

after every big crash they've fiddled interest rates downward, and it appears to be taking longer for employment to recover, and lower rates.

23:13

signpost

the system looks trapped. unemployment means chaos in the streets, and low interest rates means inflation, which means unemployment, which means.

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23:13

signpost

it's this part that would perhaps supply the "this time will be different" for btc, which has otherwise spent most of its life in a mega-bull-run-of-everything.

23:20

billymg

in tru collapse scenario only food, ammo, and reliable neighbors count for anything. if that happens, well, will be interesting. and i have nfi what the situation would be like here in cr or how long i'd survive

23:21

billymg

i'd still keep my keys safe, in case the world makes it out the other side, but yeah, i guess priorities would change pretty quick

23:21

billymg

i also don't really see that happening

23:23

billymg

newspapers could print "you must starve yourself to death to save the black children" and people would do it -- problem solved, more resources to go around for those remaining

23:25

signpost

I'm not saying mad max, just saying we're not even to 08 levels of pain yet. people just have a short memory.

23:25

signpost

and I don't think 1930s levels of pain are off the table.

23:27

signpost

going back to the patterns of past bubble cycles, the drawdowns of the last two were about 80%. 2011 came down by >90%.

23:27

signpost

we're at like -50% right now.

23:28

signpost

with a shittier world. doesn't make sense that the pain's over. but I don't know shit, just talking here.

23:28

billymg

signpost: talking btc or also also s&p, nasdaq, etc.?

23:29

billymg

s/also also/also

23:30

billymg

my thought on 80-90% drawdown is that it won't happen because the run up, from bottom to top, wasn't as high. in 2017 it was 100x ($200 to $20k)

23:31

billymg

i.e. it's been dampened in both directions

23:32

signpost

yeah, that's possible

23:33

signpost

re: s&p inflation devours margins and causes unemployment, which kills spending.

23:33

signpost

maybe they introduce UBI and see how long that holds together.

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23:34

*

signpost just doesn't intend to panic if BTC falls further. on the contrary.

23:39

billymg

UBI would be lulzy, given how the average joe spent his stimulus check in 2020

23:44

awt

signpost: job market is indeed toast

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23:45

awt

Music stopped a few weeks ago

23:46

awt

Most have no savings

23:48

asciilifeform

awt: folx w/ 0 saving at least not have to grimace as these dissolve into vapour as printingpress goes ever brr

23:48

awt

Stage is set for either massive inflation or formal bank nationalization

23:48

asciilifeform

reich banks already de-facto nationalized in '08 episode

23:48

awt

Thus the "formal"

23:49

asciilifeform

how much diff would 'formal' make

23:49

awt

asciilifeform: cbdc

23:50

*

asciilifeform never grasped what diff these'd make. there's already a centrally-operated electro-usd, has been for half century+

23:51

asciilifeform

for that matter, iirc various shitholes issued'em already, and they lived & died exactly like regular shitcoins

23:52

asciilifeform

http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006183 << ~half of adult popul. in usa already 'ubi'

23:52

bitbot

Logged on 2022-06-02 23:33:57 signpost[asciilifeform]: maybe they introduce UBI and see how long that holds together.

23:53

signpost

difference of degree only, but so is blood loss for a while.

23:54

asciilifeform

sumbody gotta physically maintain the panem et circenses for the 'ubi' sads

23:54

asciilifeform

(not even to mention the reptilian yachts)

23:55

signpost

only claim I'm making is that we've had crashes in the past, and this one isn't bad yet by their standards.

23:56

awt

Arguable that given the rate of inflation there was no recovery

23:57

asciilifeform

in other shitholes, inflation eventually undone by devaluation ('let's drop a zero on the banknotes', 'trade up to 1000 old rubles for new per meatsack by next month' etc)

23:57

signpost

yeah, this I believe is what the cdbc account at the fed is meant to make easy.

23:57

asciilifeform

in usa no ready path to this, as buying power of usd in fact propped up by foreign chumps ~exclusively

23:58

signpost

stimmies and demurrage

23:58

signpost

if I spelled the latter correctly