05:02 |
verisimilitude |
This is neat. |
| |
~ 1 hours 20 minutes ~ |
06:22 |
mats |
Lol |
| |
~ 25 minutes ~ |
06:48 |
mats |
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/14/analysis-can-the-uae-be-a-safe-haven-for-russian-oligarchs |
06:48 |
mats |
there were also recent reports that binance was in talks to hq in dubai |
| |
~ 38 minutes ~ |
07:27 |
mats |
https://coinmetrics.substack.com/p/state-of-the-network-issue-139 |
| |
~ 6 hours 2 minutes ~ |
13:29 |
asciilifeform |
verisimilitude: see also. |
| |
~ 1 hours 16 minutes ~ |
14:45 |
asciilifeform |
mats: asciilifeform finds interesting the continued disdain for btc in ru (and not merely among officials, who run own 'printer, brrr' and one'd expect, but among commoners) -- is seen as instrument of foreign domination |
| |
↖ ↖ ↖ |
14:45 |
dulapbot |
Logged on 2022-02-28 22:28:51 asciilifeform: continuing w/ this pov -- exactly 0 stopped ru from at any pt in past decade demanding btc payment for gas etc |
14:48 |
asciilifeform |
... for the most part, afaik, because most of the 'hodl's -- foreign. but also no small part because requires gear and softs imported from infidel lands ( orcs spectacularly failed to bake own since su collapse ) |
14:48 |
dulapbot |
Logged on 2020-08-22 14:54:51 asciilifeform: even today, infamous 'elbrus' is fabbed in tw, at tmsc co. |
14:51 |
asciilifeform |
( see also ) |
14:51 |
dulapbot |
(trilema) 2017-05-11 asciilifeform: presently i'm not convinced that 'baikal' cpu exists -- experience suggests that it's an elbrus, a small handful of physical items for ru army and a large stack of imaginary bezzle cpus which actually turned into swiss gold and florida mansions for various scum instead of into cpu |
14:51 |
dulapbot |
(trilema) 2017-01-26 asciilifeform: and why even the advertised elbrus sits on 100% taiwanese chipset. |
14:58 |
asciilifeform |
... over9000 folx there in fact associate very idea of 'free movement of money' w/ oligarchs |
| |
~ 1 hours ~ |
15:59 |
asciilifeform |
$ticker btc usd |
15:59 |
busybot |
Current BTC price in USD: $39014.67 |
15:59 |
asciilifeform |
!w poll |
15:59 |
watchglass |
Polling 15 nodes... |
15:59 |
watchglass |
94.176.238.102:8333 : Could not connect! |
15:59 |
watchglass |
205.134.172.4:8333 : (172-4.core.ai.net) Alive: (0.030s) V=70001 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.7.0.1/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=727461 |
15:59 |
watchglass |
205.134.172.6:8333 : (172-6.core.ai.net) Alive: (0.081s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Return Addr=0.0.0.0:8333 Blocks=727461 |
15:59 |
watchglass |
54.39.156.171:8333 : (ns562940.ip-54-39-156.net) Alive: (0.112s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=727461 |
15:59 |
watchglass |
205.134.172.28:8333 : Alive: (0.083s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Return Addr=0.0.0.0:8333 Blocks=727461 (Operator: whaack) |
15:59 |
watchglass |
71.191.220.241:8333 : (pool-71-191-220-241.washdc.fios.verizon.net) Alive: (0.154s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=727461 (Operator: asciilifeform) |
15:59 |
watchglass |
205.134.172.27:8333 : Alive: (0.144s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=727461 (Operator: asciilifeform) |
15:59 |
watchglass |
208.94.240.42:8333 : Alive: (0.204s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=727461 |
15:59 |
watchglass |
54.38.94.63:8333 : (ns3140226.ip-54-38-94.eu) Alive: (0.333s) V=88888 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.8.88.88/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=727461 |
15:59 |
watchglass |
82.79.58.192:8333 : (static-82-79-58-192.rdsnet.ro) Alive: (0.325s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=727461 |
15:59 |
watchglass |
103.6.212.28:8333 : Alive: (0.492s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Return Addr=0.0.0.0:8333 Blocks=289641 (Operator: whaack) |
15:59 |
watchglass |
75.106.222.93:8333 : Alive: (0.508s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=727461 |
16:00 |
watchglass |
103.36.92.112:8333 : (terebe.ns01.net) Alive: (0.294s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=727462 |
16:01 |
watchglass |
205.134.172.26:8333 : Busy? (No answer in 100 sec.) |
16:01 |
watchglass |
143.202.160.10:8333 : Busy? (No answer in 100 sec.) |
| |
~ 15 minutes ~ |
16:17 |
asciilifeform |
... cement testbed at 637+k. |
| |
~ 19 minutes ~ |
16:36 |
mats |
https://archive.ph/bZxda Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan Instead of Dollars for Chinese Oil Sales |
| |
~ 52 minutes ~ |
17:28 |
signpost |
mats: iirc india also de-dollarizing. |
17:29 |
signpost |
oops. |
17:32 |
signpost |
in other lulz, vxx halted trading several times today |
| |
~ 20 minutes ~ |
17:52 |
* |
asciilifeform never heard of 'vxx' |
17:55 |
signpost |
barclays stock volatility gambling instrument |
17:55 |
asciilifeform |
inferred from context as much |
17:57 |
* |
asciilifeform cheers for whatever hints of definancialization -- but long road imho |
| |
~ 51 minutes ~ |
18:48 |
asciilifeform |
meanwhile in 'great firewall' lulz: ru ministry of censorship 'blocked 20 vpns' |
18:48 |
dulapbot |
Logged on 2022-03-04 15:41:33 asciilifeform: worth noting, there's ftr 4 basic levels of 'great firewall' : |
18:52 |
signpost |
asciilifeform: yep, most extreme case of "the dip's over, right bro?" oughta be when the entire currency system takes its terminal shit. |
18:52 |
asciilifeform |
signpost: at some pt errything 'takes its terminal shit' neh |
18:53 |
signpost |
while RU might not be buying BTC broadly yet, seems like Au is getting snapped up. |
18:53 |
signpost |
yep, of course |
18:53 |
asciilifeform |
signpost: well, putin cancelled sales tax on au |
| |
↖ |
18:54 |
signpost |
that's smart. re: BTC, I expect that folks that could used it to get out into UAE or wherever. |
18:54 |
asciilifeform |
at same time, it still gets bought & sold at 'official' exch rate set by central bank. so not exactly a 'remonetization of au' |
18:54 |
asciilifeform |
signpost: they could, if weren't allergic |
18:54 |
dulapbot |
Logged on 2022-03-15 10:45:24 asciilifeform: mats: asciilifeform finds interesting the continued disdain for btc in ru (and not merely among officials, who run own 'printer, brrr' and one'd expect, but among commoners) -- is seen as instrument of foreign domination |
18:55 |
signpost |
one sees this with the US rednecks that'd otherwise be aligned too. |
18:55 |
signpost |
hoarding gold and silver, but BTC is a tool of Soros et al. |
| |
↖ |
18:56 |
asciilifeform |
somehow e.g. reich's hoard of au etc ~not~ tool of soros, go figure |
18:57 |
signpost |
btc's next phase, if it comes, gotta come from sovereigns that get a clue, not democratic great awakening |
18:57 |
signpost |
so not losing sleep over these |
18:58 |
asciilifeform |
it's entirely unsurprising tho, that difficult to sell ru (king or slave) on btc, or 'redneck', etc on btc, when his only experience with pc is arsebook running on win11 |
| |
↖ |
18:59 |
signpost |
yeah, isn't based on a totally batshit heuristic. |
18:59 |
asciilifeform |
add to this, that there's ~0 mining capacity afaik in ru, and likely to stay this way (given that ru pissed away semiconductor manufacture long ago). so they aint wrong to view it as a kind of usd |
18:59 |
signpost |
in other shitcoins, fuck these wavian nato jerry cans |
19:00 |
signpost |
right, and chicoms want them using digital yuan |
19:00 |
asciilifeform |
signpost: the 1s where the spout dun fit? indeed, is why one still sees original wermacht antiques for coupla hundy |
19:00 |
signpost |
yeah, I got one with a dud cap, broke the shit out of it on first close |
19:00 |
signpost |
others are... eh, fine |
19:02 |
asciilifeform |
they rust, too (when water in it; but ~all petrol in usa contains water, given as it's soluble in the mandatory ethyl adulterant) |
19:03 |
* |
signpost put in some stabilizer, and got non-ethanol, but probably still so |
19:03 |
asciilifeform |
will know when it rusts (or doesn't) |
19:04 |
signpost |
will hitch the cats to the bicycle and whip otherwise, lol |
19:04 |
* |
asciilifeform surprised that signpost's fleet dun run on diesel |
19:06 |
signpost |
iirc hilux was the only toyota diesel truck stateside until recently, preferential to tundras |
19:06 |
asciilifeform |
a |
19:06 |
signpost |
er rather, only diesel, not available stateside |
19:07 |
signpost |
2022 tundra is apparently available in diesel, but with bluetooth/cellular-clipperisms galore |
19:07 |
asciilifeform |
afaik ~all new autos in usa w/ clipperisms, for ~decade nao |
19:08 |
signpost |
yeah, riding in an older tundra currently |
19:08 |
signpost |
probably snag an old 4runner soon |
19:08 |
signpost |
there's a point past which my prepperism will turn to "meh, this is no longer a civilization, and not likely to be one for a few hundred years" |
| |
↖ |
19:08 |
signpost |
not there yet, but puts an outer bound on how much battery I'm willing to charge. |
19:10 |
* |
signpost parked the relocation project for now, as Texas at least produces food locally in abundance (though, let's see how the fertilizer thing goes...) |
19:12 |
PeterL |
Is texas dependent on the non-renewing aquifer for irrigation, or is that only farther north on the plains? |
19:16 |
signpost |
PeterL: no, depletion's definitely a problem that we'll bump into first, then panic about later. |
19:16 |
signpost |
for some resources there aren't a lot of places to hide left. |
19:17 |
signpost |
there are noises being made about desalination, but not sure how much capacity that'd create. |
| |
~ 21 minutes ~ |
19:39 |
* |
asciilifeform wonders how much there actually is a 'culture of metals' among the 'red usa', and how much is simply max keiser et al pushing ag (which they loaded up on cheaply after kodak bust) via roomtemp iq targeted press |
| |
↖ |
19:39 |
dulapbot |
Logged on 2022-03-15 14:55:13 signpost: hoarding gold and silver, but BTC is a tool of Soros et al. |
19:39 |
dulapbot |
Logged on 2021-08-16 21:10:22 asciilifeform: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-08-16#1052661 << at the risk of repeating the obvious -- the roomtemp iq folx have fundamental problems, usg won't need to shoot'em, can cancel their wallmart.welfare.cards any day of the week and they know it. monsantoburgers dun grow on trees (not that iq70 folx necessarily remember how to plant a tree. or that one'd grow in their blightlands if were to b |
19:40 |
asciilifeform |
... or for that matter how relevant are metals, btc, etc to folx whose 'savings' -- if exist at all -- tend to be denominated in sofa cushion loose change which escaped latest trip to liquor store |
| |
↖ |
19:43 |
asciilifeform |
http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2022-03-15#1084358 << who wouldn't wanna buy a ticket to 'civilization' heh |
19:43 |
dulapbot |
Logged on 2022-03-15 15:08:08 signpost: there's a point past which my prepperism will turn to "meh, this is no longer a civilization, and not likely to be one for a few hundred years" |
19:52 |
asciilifeform |
... from reich pov, plebes having savings is a bug, similarly to resistive losses in electric cable. 'pieces of yacht that got diverted' |
| |
↖ ↖ ↖ ↖ ↖ ↖ |
19:52 |
asciilifeform |
and it's been quite effective at collecting'em via brrr |
19:55 |
asciilifeform |
even on other end -- e.g. putin's au gambit is rather transparent scheme to get folx to sequester rub in illiquid metal, rather than bidding up increasingly scarce goodies |
19:55 |
dulapbot |
Logged on 2022-03-15 14:52:42 asciilifeform: signpost: well, putin cancelled sales tax on au |
19:56 |
asciilifeform |
usg would prolly be pulling similar stunt if its subjects ~had~ savings |
20:04 |
mats |
bitcoin just isn't big or liquid enough to support an ru pleb valve |
| |
↖ |
20:04 |
mats |
maybe before the decade is out though |
| |
~ 18 minutes ~ |
20:23 |
signpost |
http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2022-03-15#1084365 << certainly *all* demographic groups in USA are fandoms following charlatans. |
| |
↖ |
20:23 |
dulapbot |
Logged on 2022-03-15 15:38:39 asciilifeform: wonders how much there actually is a 'culture of metals' among the 'red usa', and how much is simply max keiser et al pushing ag (which they loaded up on cheaply after kodak bust) via roomtemp iq targeted press |
20:24 |
signpost |
http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2022-03-15#1084371 << bahaha, diverted pieces of yacht indeed |
20:24 |
dulapbot |
Logged on 2022-03-15 15:51:33 asciilifeform: ... from reich pov, plebes having savings is a bug, similarly to resistive losses in electric cable. 'pieces of yacht that got diverted' |
20:25 |
signpost |
http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2022-03-15#1084376 << the block reward schedule has long seemed a guess, probably far from optimal. |
20:25 |
dulapbot |
Logged on 2022-03-15 16:03:59 mats: bitcoin just isn't big or liquid enough to support an ru pleb valve |
20:26 |
signpost |
supply chokes, then TWANG. |
20:26 |
* |
signpost isn't the genius of finance to properly tune it either. |
20:26 |
PeterL |
one of those things where you don't know the best way to do it until you try, and then it is too late to change it |
| |
~ 17 minutes ~ |
20:44 |
mats |
i dont think its the rewards, miners sell relatively low qty of it to begin with |
20:45 |
mats |
people just have no interest in selling |
20:45 |
asciilifeform |
http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2022-03-15#1084378 << at one pt asciilifeform was spam-subscribed to 'red' flavour of liquishit, found interesting the particular charlatans working that niche |
20:45 |
dulapbot |
Logged on 2022-03-15 16:22:51 signpost: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2022-03-15#1084365 << certainly *all* demographic groups in USA are fandoms following charlatans. |
20:46 |
asciilifeform |
mats: indeed, but most buyer have similarly no interest in ~buying~ (genuine coin, that is. they're buying gox chits) |
20:47 |
* |
asciilifeform found interesting that that's what comes out of 'btc atm' for instance |
20:47 |
* |
asciilifeform naively thought you can hammer in an addr an' see coin there -- mnope |
20:47 |
mats |
depends on the btm operator |
20:47 |
asciilifeform |
mats: the 1s around here -- give you what amts to a gox giftcard |
20:48 |
mats |
i've used plenty that will consume an address encoded in a qr |
20:48 |
asciilifeform |
neato. not seen any like that here |
20:49 |
mats |
actually annoying to use if you don't have a bog standard smartphone wallet that generates compatible qr |
20:49 |
asciilifeform |
the gox-atm thing is actually pretty clever from chumpatronic pov, in moar ways than one -- if plebe is utterly clueless and has nfi wat to do with the chit, his 'purchase' costs vendor nuffin, is pure usd donation |
20:49 |
asciilifeform |
mats: it won't scan paper ? |
20:50 |
mats |
it can, but you have to work out which qr encoding it'll eat first |
20:50 |
* |
asciilifeform naively thought there's a 'standard' prb encoding |
20:51 |
mats |
i forget the specifics, but i actually just gave up after a few tries, couldn't figure out what the machine wanted from me |
20:51 |
asciilifeform |
'spreading -- worx!'(tm)(r)(c) |
20:51 |
mats |
went and bought a burner then moved the coin off it |
20:52 |
* |
asciilifeform brb |
20:53 |
mats |
http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2022-02-10#1078697 << "At time of writing [February 22, 2021], miner deposits make up about 5.5% of exchange inflows. While most miner selling is done OTC, this number is likely upward-biased due to the wide net cast by the 1-hop heuristic, meaning the true on-exchange sell pressure provided by miners is probably even lower." |
20:53 |
dulapbot |
Logged on 2022-02-10 23:51:13 mats: https://coinmetrics.io/following-flows-ii-where-do-miners-sell |
| |
~ 24 minutes ~ |
21:17 |
signpost |
mats: think they lever up enough to get to the next halving? |
21:17 |
* |
signpost could see this being the case |
21:25 |
mats |
why would they need to do that? |
21:32 |
verisimilitude |
Define ``lever up''. |
21:32 |
signpost |
assuming power's not free for e.g. riot blockchain, eventually they have costs to cover. |
21:32 |
signpost |
presumably they're avoiding selling with loans. |
21:33 |
signpost |
verisimilitude: leverage is a euphemism for using debt to amplify a bet |
21:33 |
mats |
oh, right, i did read about miners taking loans |
21:34 |
verisimilitude |
Oh, so it's borrowing money with which to gamble. |
21:34 |
verisimilitude |
I just didn't understand this shorthand. |
21:34 |
signpost |
sure, no problem. |
21:35 |
mats |
i haven't read sec filings by miners in some time |
21:36 |
mats |
more likely they just sell the coins they got |
21:38 |
mats |
hash has recovered since the exile of summer 2021 |
21:43 |
mats |
https://web.archive.org/web/20220218152521/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-11/bitcoin-miners-are-selling-coins-in-worrying-sign-of-a-shakeout |
21:45 |
* |
signpost slurps air through a straw |
21:47 |
signpost |
guess the loans aren't long enough, lol |
21:47 |
mats |
seems it'll take a while for the price to consolidate at 40-50 |
21:48 |
mats |
lot of newbs hurting from unrealised losses at all time highs |
21:50 |
mats |
who are selling whenever there's a run |
21:53 |
signpost |
if there's a comparable bull run in the next cycle, assuming I have any, might make sense to roll a few off into other assets. |
21:54 |
mats |
dunno |
21:56 |
mats |
sometimes i see good deals in equities but i can't really shake the sense there'll be more disruptions in property rights |
21:56 |
mats |
in that sense there's no alternative to bitcoins |
21:56 |
signpost |
yeah, was more thinking a big wad of land somewhere outside a zone that's growing |
21:57 |
signpost |
but that yields negative until sold, of course. |
21:57 |
signpost |
just speculating here, no plans |
21:57 |
signpost |
assuming that central meddling increases over time seems a good bet. |
21:58 |
signpost |
on the subject of worse times ahead, several of our friends have suddenly come down with a severe thing that isn't covid or flu, one hospitalized. |
| |
↖ |
21:59 |
signpost |
a little weird. |
22:03 |
signpost |
mats: also man, I mostly assume that by the time guys like us think of a trade, the experts are already in that position ready to offload it onto us. |
| |
↖ |
22:03 |
signpost |
or will have their friends intervene when they're in trouble, like the vxx trade stoppage today. |
22:05 |
mats |
maybe |
22:06 |
mats |
some trades are big balls and time insensitivity |
22:07 |
mats |
stablecoins lending is still very profitable since institutions are shut out from participation, its quite the retail opportunity |
| |
↖ |
22:09 |
mats |
many chinese corps have deep per share discounts and very good books |
22:10 |
mats |
maybe its the end of a golden era of american and chinese cooperation and a new era of competition, or maybe not |
22:11 |
signpost |
not a lot of planet left. once we figure out who owns the contested parts, doubtful international trade will be prevented on ideological grounds. |
| |
↖ |
22:12 |
mats |
i should probably move money into an hkex brokerage and buy shares |
22:15 |
signpost |
and, I'd probably be more bullish on non-NATO markets given the WEF types want to try a shittier version of chicom-capitalism. |
22:15 |
signpost |
so they'll fuck that up a few times while the chinese get way further ahead. |
22:16 |
* |
signpost has that Schwab fuck's book enqueued. |
22:21 |
mats |
https://coinmetrics.substack.com/p/state-of-the-network-issue-146 "Adoption of US-dollar backed stablecoins has continued to accelerate with the total number of addresses holding at least $1 worth of the major stablecoins recently surpassing 12M – roughly three times the value from one-year ago." |
22:26 |
mats |
tether is just a little over half of the whole stablecoin market, receding relatively quickly to competitors |
22:26 |
mats |
wonder if there'll still be moaning when its just 1/3 |