Show Idle (>14 d.) Chans


← 2022-03-14 | 2022-03-16 →
05:02 verisimilitude This is neat.
~ 1 hours 20 minutes ~
06:22 mats Lol
~ 25 minutes ~
06:48 mats https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/14/analysis-can-the-uae-be-a-safe-haven-for-russian-oligarchs
06:48 mats there were also recent reports that binance was in talks to hq in dubai
~ 38 minutes ~
07:27 mats https://coinmetrics.substack.com/p/state-of-the-network-issue-139
~ 6 hours 2 minutes ~
13:29 asciilifeform verisimilitude: see also.
~ 1 hours 16 minutes ~
14:45 asciilifeform mats: asciilifeform finds interesting the continued disdain for btc in ru (and not merely among officials, who run own 'printer, brrr' and one'd expect, but among commoners) -- is seen as instrument of foreign domination
14:45 dulapbot Logged on 2022-02-28 22:28:51 asciilifeform: continuing w/ this pov -- exactly 0 stopped ru from at any pt in past decade demanding btc payment for gas etc
14:48 asciilifeform ... for the most part, afaik, because most of the 'hodl's -- foreign. but also no small part because requires gear and softs imported from infidel lands ( orcs spectacularly failed to bake own since su collapse )
14:48 dulapbot Logged on 2020-08-22 14:54:51 asciilifeform: even today, infamous 'elbrus' is fabbed in tw, at tmsc co.
14:51 asciilifeform ( see also )
14:51 dulapbot (trilema) 2017-05-11 asciilifeform: presently i'm not convinced that 'baikal' cpu exists -- experience suggests that it's an elbrus, a small handful of physical items for ru army and a large stack of imaginary bezzle cpus which actually turned into swiss gold and florida mansions for various scum instead of into cpu
14:51 dulapbot (trilema) 2017-01-26 asciilifeform: and why even the advertised elbrus sits on 100% taiwanese chipset.
14:58 asciilifeform ... over9000 folx there in fact associate very idea of 'free movement of money' w/ oligarchs
~ 1 hours ~
15:59 asciilifeform $ticker btc usd
15:59 busybot Current BTC price in USD: $39014.67
15:59 asciilifeform !w poll
15:59 watchglass Polling 15 nodes...
15:59 watchglass 94.176.238.102:8333 : Could not connect!
15:59 watchglass 205.134.172.4:8333 : (172-4.core.ai.net) Alive: (0.030s) V=70001 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.7.0.1/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=727461
15:59 watchglass 205.134.172.6:8333 : (172-6.core.ai.net) Alive: (0.081s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Return Addr=0.0.0.0:8333 Blocks=727461
15:59 watchglass 54.39.156.171:8333 : (ns562940.ip-54-39-156.net) Alive: (0.112s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=727461
15:59 watchglass 205.134.172.28:8333 : Alive: (0.083s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Return Addr=0.0.0.0:8333 Blocks=727461 (Operator: whaack)
15:59 watchglass 71.191.220.241:8333 : (pool-71-191-220-241.washdc.fios.verizon.net) Alive: (0.154s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=727461 (Operator: asciilifeform)
15:59 watchglass 205.134.172.27:8333 : Alive: (0.144s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=727461 (Operator: asciilifeform)
15:59 watchglass 208.94.240.42:8333 : Alive: (0.204s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=727461
15:59 watchglass 54.38.94.63:8333 : (ns3140226.ip-54-38-94.eu) Alive: (0.333s) V=88888 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.8.88.88/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=727461
15:59 watchglass 82.79.58.192:8333 : (static-82-79-58-192.rdsnet.ro) Alive: (0.325s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=727461
15:59 watchglass 103.6.212.28:8333 : Alive: (0.492s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Return Addr=0.0.0.0:8333 Blocks=289641 (Operator: whaack)
15:59 watchglass 75.106.222.93:8333 : Alive: (0.508s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=727461
16:00 watchglass 103.36.92.112:8333 : (terebe.ns01.net) Alive: (0.294s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=727462
16:01 watchglass 205.134.172.26:8333 : Busy? (No answer in 100 sec.)
16:01 watchglass 143.202.160.10:8333 : Busy? (No answer in 100 sec.)
~ 15 minutes ~
16:17 asciilifeform ... cement testbed at 637+k.
~ 19 minutes ~
16:36 mats https://archive.ph/bZxda Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan Instead of Dollars for Chinese Oil Sales
~ 52 minutes ~
17:28 signpost mats: iirc india also de-dollarizing.
17:29 signpost oops.
17:32 signpost in other lulz, vxx halted trading several times today
~ 20 minutes ~
17:52 * asciilifeform never heard of 'vxx'
17:55 signpost barclays stock volatility gambling instrument
17:55 asciilifeform inferred from context as much
17:57 * asciilifeform cheers for whatever hints of definancialization -- but long road imho
~ 51 minutes ~
18:48 asciilifeform meanwhile in 'great firewall' lulz: ru ministry of censorship 'blocked 20 vpns'
18:48 dulapbot Logged on 2022-03-04 15:41:33 asciilifeform: worth noting, there's ftr 4 basic levels of 'great firewall' :
18:52 signpost asciilifeform: yep, most extreme case of "the dip's over, right bro?" oughta be when the entire currency system takes its terminal shit.
18:52 asciilifeform signpost: at some pt errything 'takes its terminal shit' neh
18:53 signpost while RU might not be buying BTC broadly yet, seems like Au is getting snapped up.
18:53 signpost yep, of course
18:53 asciilifeform signpost: well, putin cancelled sales tax on au
18:54 signpost that's smart. re: BTC, I expect that folks that could used it to get out into UAE or wherever.
18:54 asciilifeform at same time, it still gets bought & sold at 'official' exch rate set by central bank. so not exactly a 'remonetization of au'
18:54 asciilifeform signpost: they could, if weren't allergic
18:54 dulapbot Logged on 2022-03-15 10:45:24 asciilifeform: mats: asciilifeform finds interesting the continued disdain for btc in ru (and not merely among officials, who run own 'printer, brrr' and one'd expect, but among commoners) -- is seen as instrument of foreign domination
18:55 signpost one sees this with the US rednecks that'd otherwise be aligned too.
18:55 signpost hoarding gold and silver, but BTC is a tool of Soros et al.
18:56 asciilifeform somehow e.g. reich's hoard of au etc ~not~ tool of soros, go figure
18:57 signpost btc's next phase, if it comes, gotta come from sovereigns that get a clue, not democratic great awakening
18:57 signpost so not losing sleep over these
18:58 asciilifeform it's entirely unsurprising tho, that difficult to sell ru (king or slave) on btc, or 'redneck', etc on btc, when his only experience with pc is arsebook running on win11
18:59 signpost yeah, isn't based on a totally batshit heuristic.
18:59 asciilifeform add to this, that there's ~0 mining capacity afaik in ru, and likely to stay this way (given that ru pissed away semiconductor manufacture long ago). so they aint wrong to view it as a kind of usd
18:59 signpost in other shitcoins, fuck these wavian nato jerry cans
19:00 signpost right, and chicoms want them using digital yuan
19:00 asciilifeform signpost: the 1s where the spout dun fit? indeed, is why one still sees original wermacht antiques for coupla hundy
19:00 signpost yeah, I got one with a dud cap, broke the shit out of it on first close
19:00 signpost others are... eh, fine
19:02 asciilifeform they rust, too (when water in it; but ~all petrol in usa contains water, given as it's soluble in the mandatory ethyl adulterant)
19:03 * signpost put in some stabilizer, and got non-ethanol, but probably still so
19:03 asciilifeform will know when it rusts (or doesn't)
19:04 signpost will hitch the cats to the bicycle and whip otherwise, lol
19:04 * asciilifeform surprised that signpost's fleet dun run on diesel
19:06 signpost iirc hilux was the only toyota diesel truck stateside until recently, preferential to tundras
19:06 asciilifeform a
19:06 signpost er rather, only diesel, not available stateside
19:07 signpost 2022 tundra is apparently available in diesel, but with bluetooth/cellular-clipperisms galore
19:07 asciilifeform afaik ~all new autos in usa w/ clipperisms, for ~decade nao
19:08 signpost yeah, riding in an older tundra currently
19:08 signpost probably snag an old 4runner soon
19:08 signpost there's a point past which my prepperism will turn to "meh, this is no longer a civilization, and not likely to be one for a few hundred years"
19:08 signpost not there yet, but puts an outer bound on how much battery I'm willing to charge.
19:10 * signpost parked the relocation project for now, as Texas at least produces food locally in abundance (though, let's see how the fertilizer thing goes...)
19:12 PeterL Is texas dependent on the non-renewing aquifer for irrigation, or is that only farther north on the plains?
19:16 signpost PeterL: no, depletion's definitely a problem that we'll bump into first, then panic about later.
19:16 signpost for some resources there aren't a lot of places to hide left.
19:17 signpost there are noises being made about desalination, but not sure how much capacity that'd create.
~ 21 minutes ~
19:39 * asciilifeform wonders how much there actually is a 'culture of metals' among the 'red usa', and how much is simply max keiser et al pushing ag (which they loaded up on cheaply after kodak bust) via roomtemp iq targeted press
19:39 dulapbot Logged on 2022-03-15 14:55:13 signpost: hoarding gold and silver, but BTC is a tool of Soros et al.
19:39 dulapbot Logged on 2021-08-16 21:10:22 asciilifeform: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-08-16#1052661 << at the risk of repeating the obvious -- the roomtemp iq folx have fundamental problems, usg won't need to shoot'em, can cancel their wallmart.welfare.cards any day of the week and they know it. monsantoburgers dun grow on trees (not that iq70 folx necessarily remember how to plant a tree. or that one'd grow in their blightlands if were to b
19:40 asciilifeform ... or for that matter how relevant are metals, btc, etc to folx whose 'savings' -- if exist at all -- tend to be denominated in sofa cushion loose change which escaped latest trip to liquor store
19:43 asciilifeform http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2022-03-15#1084358 << who wouldn't wanna buy a ticket to 'civilization' heh
19:43 dulapbot Logged on 2022-03-15 15:08:08 signpost: there's a point past which my prepperism will turn to "meh, this is no longer a civilization, and not likely to be one for a few hundred years"
19:52 asciilifeform ... from reich pov, plebes having savings is a bug, similarly to resistive losses in electric cable. 'pieces of yacht that got diverted'
19:52 asciilifeform and it's been quite effective at collecting'em via brrr
19:55 asciilifeform even on other end -- e.g. putin's au gambit is rather transparent scheme to get folx to sequester rub in illiquid metal, rather than bidding up increasingly scarce goodies
19:55 dulapbot Logged on 2022-03-15 14:52:42 asciilifeform: signpost: well, putin cancelled sales tax on au
19:56 asciilifeform usg would prolly be pulling similar stunt if its subjects ~had~ savings
20:04 mats bitcoin just isn't big or liquid enough to support an ru pleb valve
20:04 mats maybe before the decade is out though
~ 18 minutes ~
20:23 signpost http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2022-03-15#1084365 << certainly *all* demographic groups in USA are fandoms following charlatans.
20:23 dulapbot Logged on 2022-03-15 15:38:39 asciilifeform: wonders how much there actually is a 'culture of metals' among the 'red usa', and how much is simply max keiser et al pushing ag (which they loaded up on cheaply after kodak bust) via roomtemp iq targeted press
20:24 signpost http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2022-03-15#1084371 << bahaha, diverted pieces of yacht indeed
20:24 dulapbot Logged on 2022-03-15 15:51:33 asciilifeform: ... from reich pov, plebes having savings is a bug, similarly to resistive losses in electric cable. 'pieces of yacht that got diverted'
20:25 signpost http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2022-03-15#1084376 << the block reward schedule has long seemed a guess, probably far from optimal.
20:25 dulapbot Logged on 2022-03-15 16:03:59 mats: bitcoin just isn't big or liquid enough to support an ru pleb valve
20:26 signpost supply chokes, then TWANG.
20:26 * signpost isn't the genius of finance to properly tune it either.
20:26 PeterL one of those things where you don't know the best way to do it until you try, and then it is too late to change it
~ 17 minutes ~
20:44 mats i dont think its the rewards, miners sell relatively low qty of it to begin with
20:45 mats people just have no interest in selling
20:45 asciilifeform http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2022-03-15#1084378 << at one pt asciilifeform was spam-subscribed to 'red' flavour of liquishit, found interesting the particular charlatans working that niche
20:45 dulapbot Logged on 2022-03-15 16:22:51 signpost: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2022-03-15#1084365 << certainly *all* demographic groups in USA are fandoms following charlatans.
20:46 asciilifeform mats: indeed, but most buyer have similarly no interest in ~buying~ (genuine coin, that is. they're buying gox chits)
20:47 * asciilifeform found interesting that that's what comes out of 'btc atm' for instance
20:47 * asciilifeform naively thought you can hammer in an addr an' see coin there -- mnope
20:47 mats depends on the btm operator
20:47 asciilifeform mats: the 1s around here -- give you what amts to a gox giftcard
20:48 mats i've used plenty that will consume an address encoded in a qr
20:48 asciilifeform neato. not seen any like that here
20:49 mats actually annoying to use if you don't have a bog standard smartphone wallet that generates compatible qr
20:49 asciilifeform the gox-atm thing is actually pretty clever from chumpatronic pov, in moar ways than one -- if plebe is utterly clueless and has nfi wat to do with the chit, his 'purchase' costs vendor nuffin, is pure usd donation
20:49 asciilifeform mats: it won't scan paper ?
20:50 mats it can, but you have to work out which qr encoding it'll eat first
20:50 * asciilifeform naively thought there's a 'standard' prb encoding
20:51 mats i forget the specifics, but i actually just gave up after a few tries, couldn't figure out what the machine wanted from me
20:51 asciilifeform 'spreading -- worx!'(tm)(r)(c)
20:51 mats went and bought a burner then moved the coin off it
20:52 * asciilifeform brb
20:53 mats http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2022-02-10#1078697 << "At time of writing [February 22, 2021], miner deposits make up about 5.5% of exchange inflows. While most miner selling is done OTC, this number is likely upward-biased due to the wide net cast by the 1-hop heuristic, meaning the true on-exchange sell pressure provided by miners is probably even lower."
20:53 dulapbot Logged on 2022-02-10 23:51:13 mats: https://coinmetrics.io/following-flows-ii-where-do-miners-sell
~ 24 minutes ~
21:17 signpost mats: think they lever up enough to get to the next halving?
21:17 * signpost could see this being the case
21:25 mats why would they need to do that?
21:32 verisimilitude Define ``lever up''.
21:32 signpost assuming power's not free for e.g. riot blockchain, eventually they have costs to cover.
21:32 signpost presumably they're avoiding selling with loans.
21:33 signpost verisimilitude: leverage is a euphemism for using debt to amplify a bet
21:33 mats oh, right, i did read about miners taking loans
21:34 verisimilitude Oh, so it's borrowing money with which to gamble.
21:34 verisimilitude I just didn't understand this shorthand.
21:34 signpost sure, no problem.
21:35 mats i haven't read sec filings by miners in some time
21:36 mats more likely they just sell the coins they got
21:38 mats hash has recovered since the exile of summer 2021
21:43 mats https://web.archive.org/web/20220218152521/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-11/bitcoin-miners-are-selling-coins-in-worrying-sign-of-a-shakeout
21:45 * signpost slurps air through a straw
21:47 signpost guess the loans aren't long enough, lol
21:47 mats seems it'll take a while for the price to consolidate at 40-50
21:48 mats lot of newbs hurting from unrealised losses at all time highs
21:50 mats who are selling whenever there's a run
21:53 signpost if there's a comparable bull run in the next cycle, assuming I have any, might make sense to roll a few off into other assets.
21:54 mats dunno
21:56 mats sometimes i see good deals in equities but i can't really shake the sense there'll be more disruptions in property rights
21:56 mats in that sense there's no alternative to bitcoins
21:56 signpost yeah, was more thinking a big wad of land somewhere outside a zone that's growing
21:57 signpost but that yields negative until sold, of course.
21:57 signpost just speculating here, no plans
21:57 signpost assuming that central meddling increases over time seems a good bet.
21:58 signpost on the subject of worse times ahead, several of our friends have suddenly come down with a severe thing that isn't covid or flu, one hospitalized.
21:59 signpost a little weird.
22:03 signpost mats: also man, I mostly assume that by the time guys like us think of a trade, the experts are already in that position ready to offload it onto us.
22:03 signpost or will have their friends intervene when they're in trouble, like the vxx trade stoppage today.
22:05 mats maybe
22:06 mats some trades are big balls and time insensitivity
22:07 mats stablecoins lending is still very profitable since institutions are shut out from participation, its quite the retail opportunity
22:09 mats many chinese corps have deep per share discounts and very good books
22:10 mats maybe its the end of a golden era of american and chinese cooperation and a new era of competition, or maybe not
22:11 signpost not a lot of planet left. once we figure out who owns the contested parts, doubtful international trade will be prevented on ideological grounds.
22:12 mats i should probably move money into an hkex brokerage and buy shares
22:15 signpost and, I'd probably be more bullish on non-NATO markets given the WEF types want to try a shittier version of chicom-capitalism.
22:15 signpost so they'll fuck that up a few times while the chinese get way further ahead.
22:16 * signpost has that Schwab fuck's book enqueued.
22:21 mats https://coinmetrics.substack.com/p/state-of-the-network-issue-146 "Adoption of US-dollar backed stablecoins has continued to accelerate with the total number of addresses holding at least $1 worth of the major stablecoins recently surpassing 12M – roughly three times the value from one-year ago."
22:26 mats tether is just a little over half of the whole stablecoin market, receding relatively quickly to competitors
22:26 mats wonder if there'll still be moaning when its just 1/3
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