| 01:16 |
mats |
https://archive.ph/2022.09.10-200641/https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Supply-Chain/Global-supply-chains-poised-for-relief-as-ship-congestion-eases |
| 01:17 |
mats |
https://archive.ph/2022.09.11-213652/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-11/zoltan-pozsar-sees-a-new-dollar-regime-his-longtime-collaborator-disagrees associated podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096?i=1000579120792 |
| 01:17 |
mats |
https://archive.ph/2022.09.12-014414/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-11/world-s-hottest-housing-markets-are-down-all-over-as-interest-rates-hike |
| 01:17 |
mats |
https://archive.ph/2022.09.08-230005/https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-s-dominance-of-manufacturing-is-growing-not-shrinking |
| 01:17 |
mats |
https://archive.ph/2022.03.16-161700/https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/entrepreneurs-of-political-violence-ukraine-far-righ |
| 01:18 |
mats |
oops, https://archive.ph/2022.03.16-161700/https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/entrepreneurs-of-political-violence-ukraine-far-right/ |
| 01:18 |
mats |
https://archive.ph/2022.09.14-020401/https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/europes-rightward-trend-has-reached-sweden-election-voters-crime-immigration-moderates-jimmie-akesson-11663104023 |
| 01:20 |
mats |
http://archive.today/2022.08.30-204344/https://www.reuters.com/world/france-braces-uncertain-winter-nuclear-power-shortage-looms-2022-08-30 |
| 01:20 |
mats |
https://archive.ph/2022.08.22-235353/https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Asia-Insight/China-s-ASEAN-Silk-Road-gets-slippery-as-other-powers-move-in |
| |
~ 1 hours 17 minutes ~ |
| 02:38 |
mats |
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/14/us-railroad-strike-union-pacific-bnsf |
| |
~ 11 hours 17 minutes ~ |
| 13:56 |
asciilifeform |
mats: lulzy, had nfi re the variable-rate loans thing ( utter nuttery imho ) |
| |
~ 25 minutes ~ |
| 14:21 |
mats |
asciilifeform: thats just how loans are supposed to work |
| 14:22 |
mats |
it is the 30 year fixed rate mortgage that is an abomination of usg policy from the 1930s that has resulted in monetisation |
| 14:24 |
mats |
the market would never have invented a stupid long loan duration, with attendant interest rate risks, default risk, and very high illiquidity |
| |
~ 16 minutes ~ |
| 14:40 |
asciilifeform |
mats: in what universe is a loan 'supposed to be' potentially unlimited liability for the borrower? ('hey you borrowed at 1%, but how about this year it'll be 500%, haha') |
| 14:41 |
asciilifeform |
even mafia loan not worx like this |
| 14:41 |
mats |
that's exactly how mafia loan works |
| 14:42 |
asciilifeform |
they can have 3figure interest% but afaik traditionally agreed in advance |
| 14:47 |
mats |
it doesn't feel fair, but finance isn't fair |
| 14:48 |
mats |
more broadly, nations other than usa don't really have monetary policy, because usa's monetary policy is global |
| 14:52 |
asciilifeform |
mats: wasn't re 'fair' but re the claim that variable-rate loan somehow 'sane'. arbitrary increase of interest % somehow ~not~ default risk ? |
| 14:54 |
mats |
it is |
| 14:57 |
asciilifeform |
orthogonally, how does 'usa policy is global' explain why variable % loan uncommon there, but pestilential elsewhere ? |
| 15:02 |
asciilifeform |
... for that matter, how is the 30y loan a product of anyffin other than usurers' desire to enable typical plebe house to be 'worth' 1e6$+ ? (picture if loan ~had~ to be e.g. 5y.) |
| |
↖ |
| 15:04 |
asciilifeform |
if typical borrower could be expected to live 100y, would expect to see 60y loans in usa |
| |
↖ |
| |
~ 23 minutes ~ |
| 15:27 |
mats |
who do you think eats the default risk |
| |
~ 50 minutes ~ |
| 16:17 |
mats |
https://web.archive.org/web/20190204192234/http://www.housingrisk.org/housing-finance-fact-or-fiction |
| 16:19 |
mats |
feels like you didn't read the line where i told you that a 30y instrument is idiotic |
| |
~ 36 minutes ~ |
| 16:56 |
asciilifeform |
mats: hm so since '48, not '30s |
| 16:57 |
asciilifeform |
from linked piece, not clear precisely who pushed to elongate the terms |
| 16:57 |
asciilifeform |
aint a mystery who wins from it tho imho |
| 16:58 |
* |
asciilifeform also not knows what % of market was covered by FHAism (then or nao) |
| 17:00 |
asciilifeform |
'in a seller’s market, when choice is restricted and the seller virtually dictates sales terms, more liberal credit is likely to be absorbed in price with probably a reduction in housing standards' << noshit |
| |
~ 16 minutes ~ |
| 17:16 |
mats |
for aficionados, https://web.archive.org/web/20170808172222/http://pbfea2005.rutgers.edu/2007/Papers/148-Analyzing%20Yield%20Duration.pdf |