#alethepedia | 2020-10-12

Logged on 2020-10-11 13:45:14 asciilifeform: nuffin continues 'forever', entirely true. but can continue for rather long time. e.g. usd-au exch rate has been under control via this mechanism for ~century .

13:38

http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/alethepedia/2020-10-11#1000683 << bitcoin can easily add a zero without a sandwich costing $150 (pleb sandwich, wall street sandwich already costs this much as of a few years ago)

13:38

Logged on 2020-10-11 13:10:17 asciilifeform: thimbronion: the altcoinists -- sure . but i was speaking of the fact that the exch rate prolly aint growing another 0 -- or rather, not w/out the dollar price of archaetypical sandwich also growing a zero.

13:38

i say this because the current "market cap" (simply referring to # of btc mined * current exchange rate) sits at around $200B, absolute peanuts in the grand scheme of things (AAPL and AMZN each at about $2T)

↖ ↖

13:38

so btc could add a zero and have the same "market cap" as AAPL and i doubt much would change, except tighter controls and new restrictions around fiat on/off ramps. but no hyperinflation event necessary imo

13:38

but yes, after adding another extra zero from there... then maybe sandwich for pleb also costs $150

13:44

billymg: per my cosmography -- to get that new 0 (i.e. 100k$ btc) , the 'reactor cooling' (usg's emergency dump setup) would have to break down. and doubt that it would break outside of a full-blown collapse scenario a la ru 1990s.

13:44

Logged on 2020-10-11 13:26:17 asciilifeform: erry time usd-btc exch rate becomes 'dangerously high' (~10k seems to be the tripwire, ever since 'system' established) usg dumps (or presses on a compliant asset to dump) a truckload of coin. does not even have to be cosmic qty of coin; simply enuff to trigger margin calls and set the idjit dominoes falling

13:47

http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/alethepedia/2020-10-12#1000770 << imho only superficially similar cases. most of the fiatola stocks are locked up in something analogous to nukewaste graveyards -- various funds which 'know what is expected of them' and won't e.g. dump $10B of crapple in 1 sitting. whereas btc holders operate under no such restrictions.

↖

13:47

Logged on 2020-10-12 13:38:18 billymg: i say this because the current "market cap" (simply referring to # of btc mined * current exchange rate) sits at around $200B, absolute peanuts in the grand scheme of things (AAPL and AMZN each at about $2T)

13:50

asciilifeform: i think their media/narrative machine is sufficient enough to "nothing to see here" whenever the price grows by an order of magnitude, this keeps the majority of inmates from realizing what's going on

13:51

e.g. "ZOMG Bitcoin crashes 70% !!11"

13:51

everyone barely paying attention goes, "gee, guess it's just a scam, back to work"

13:51

and this works for 99% of pop

13:52

http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/alethepedia/2020-10-12#1000775 << yes, this is true. and now true also for the portion of btc sitting at coinbase, et al.

13:52

Logged on 2020-10-12 13:47:09 asciilifeform: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/alethepedia/2020-10-12#1000770 << imho only superficially similar cases. most of the fiatola stocks are locked up in something analogous to nukewaste graveyards -- various funds which 'know what is expected of them' and won't e.g. dump $10B of crapple in 1 sitting. whereas btc holders operate under no such restrictions.

13:53

i just think it may be at a point now where even USG friends have some btc, and if done in a careful enough way can re-price their own investment without causing a cascade from retail

13:54

billymg: keeping 'it's a scam, back to work' tvscum (y'know, the same people who had to be beaten for years into buying a comp) outta btcism was never serious problem for usg.

13:56

billymg: usg-bannered btc holders have been around for years. and it is primarily they who operate the waterfall; profiting from knowing the exact timing of the dump/repurchase 'sell dear, buy cheap' cycle.

13:59

asciilifeform: exactly, but them knowing the exact timing of the pump/dump cycle doesn't mean intelligent folk can't just sit and hold (knowing they won't make *maximum* profit, like USG and friends, but still at least benefit from the supply/demand reality)

13:59

sure most will get scammed out of fiat and coin, but no reason one has to play that game

14:00

'sit and hold' naturally next best thing to 'sit and hold a steadily-increasing, at expense of the rubes, pile' .

14:00

the folx who are in fact able to swing / observe the swings -- of the pendulum, however, can and do.

14:01