| 13:05 |
signpost |
btw my chicken bones say the dip is over unless transaction fees decline. putting it on record so I can laugh at myself later. |
| |
~ 1 hours 21 minutes ~ |
| 14:27 |
signpost |
I've got that ass-backwards. fees buy hashes. |
| 14:31 |
signpost |
https://www.tradingview.com/x/xTKaTIHR/ |
| 14:32 |
* |
asciilifeform fwiw by default suspects umpteenth dip is simply waterfall action |
| 14:32 |
bitbot |
Logged on 2024-04-30 21:35:56 asciilifeform[jonsykkel|signpost|billymg]: (seems to be the standard formula for 'thought he got outta reich, but when needed, found and stuffed into a sack and brought in' |
| 14:33 |
asciilifeform |
( amplified, as always, by liquidations of leveraged positions ) |
| 14:33 |
bitbot |
Logged on 2022-06-02 17:42:49 asciilifeform: ... objective of the 'institutional' scum is simple as a hammer: 1) pump it up, so that 1a) btc-usd dun track actual-inflation 1b) can dump it periodically, inducing morons (esp. of the 'leveraged' variety) to panic sell 2) let'em load up on the cheap, after each such panic. |
| 14:34 |
signpost |
orange line is just (btc_hashrate / (blockSubsidy + block_fee) / btc_supply) / math.pow(10, 6) |
| 14:36 |
signpost |
but yes, hoarders can always dump. fwiw miners hold about 10x usg if you believe glassnode. |
| 14:36 |
* |
signpost operating from the hypothesis that the market always re-establishes supply v demand dynamics attached to $ per hash in the long run. |
| 14:38 |
asciilifeform |
the weak link there, suspect, is 'long run'. ('market can ???? far longer than you can remain solvent'(tm)(r)(c)) |
| 14:40 |
asciilifeform |
orthogonally, 'market' presently consists of over9000 casino gamblers who are occupied mainly with guessing where usg is gonna park a freshly-printed $maxint this quarter, and making leveraged bets on same |
| 14:40 |
asciilifeform |
(rather than what most sane folx typically think of as 'market') |
| 14:41 |
signpost |
that's the experiment, eh? can the btc ratchet escape usd? |
| 14:42 |
asciilifeform |
so far apparently nope |
| 14:43 |
asciilifeform |
(pertinently, btc not actually recovered 2020 exchrate, if one adjusts for realinflation(tm), needs arguably 100+k $ for this) |
| 14:43 |
asciilifeform |
err, '22 |
| 14:44 |
signpost |
that'd put recent price moves in line with the 16-20 halving. |
| 14:44 |
signpost |
run-up would happen sometime in the next 1yr |
| 14:46 |
signpost |
USG's best weapon would be causing chain congestion and running up fees. |
| 14:47 |
asciilifeform |
hodlonauts not give slightest shit re congestion tho |
| 14:47 |
asciilifeform |
(nor do speculators, who work ~100% with papercoin) |
| 14:47 |
asciilifeform |
not even sure tbh who, precisely, does |
| 14:48 |
signpost |
each block a miner has to pay for a certain amount of power to produce that block. |
| 14:48 |
signpost |
more fees in that block means each fee-satoshi is responsible for fewer hashes. |
| 14:49 |
signpost |
kind of a weird dynamic. congestion means the purchasing power of the units goes down. |
| 14:50 |
asciilifeform |
orthogonally, turns mining further into contest of who can find cheap/stolen mains current |
| 14:51 |
signpost |
could call that price discovery of power. |
| 14:51 |
asciilifeform |
( the inescapable endgame fwiw ) |
| 14:51 |
bitbot |
Logged on 2024-02-13 16:09:59 asciilifeform[jonsykkel|signpost]: not knows wai no such thing afaik baked to date; can only conclude that political climate aint yet remotely hostile enuff to centralized miners. and/or nobody with half a brain in fact yet has access to the req'd fab capacity to try 'toaster' approach. |
| 14:51 |
* |
asciilifeform must bbl |