Show Idle (>14 d.) Chans
← 2016-04-19 | 2016-04-21 → ↓
00:01 BingoBoingo And yet somehow my links ended up on an alf list
00:04 mircea_popescu yeah well not everyone is into everything.
00:17 * BingoBoingo kind of wants, shame it isn't a creeping red fescue http://naturalsociety.com/new-gmo-approved-grass-may-infiltrate-lawn-near/
~ 31 minutes ~
00:48 trinque $up deedbot-
00:49 deedbot deedbot- voiced for 30 minutes.
~ 26 minutes ~
01:15 trinque davout │ deedbot's dead? << seems to be having some trouble with whatever's going on with freenode these days.
01:16 trinque but I have the new one eating deeds; a bit more work and deedbot- will not be needed anymore
~ 4 hours 50 minutes ~
06:07 punkman https://www.idontplaydarts.com/2016/04/detecting-curl-pipe-bash-server-side/
~ 31 minutes ~
06:38 mircea_popescu $up referredbyloper_
06:38 deedbot referredbyloper_ voiced for 30 minutes.
06:40 mircea_popescu http://archive.is/Nn8ZM << am i the only one that thinks it a little bizarre someone'd pay 80 btc for a site and then do exactly nothing for the next coupla weeks ?!
06:42 mircea_popescu punkman isn't all that buffer-filling shenanigans going to give the show away anyway ?
06:43 mircea_popescu "oh look, this 16kb script download takes > 1mb hurrr"
~ 21 minutes ~
07:05 shinohai Good morning #trilema
07:07 mircea_popescu hola.
07:13 shinohai Trying to work up a hilarious angle on the 123-reg.co.uk lulz this morning.
07:26 mircea_popescu *thumbsup*
07:31 shinohai This being the UK I am willing to bet the server admin was a Pajeet.
07:35 mircea_popescu whassat ?
07:38 punkman mircea_popescu: give the show away to who? the guy piping to bash?
07:39 mircea_popescu anyone watching the system.
07:39 mircea_popescu "gee i wonder why a fresh install of X takes 2gb when the package is 200mb ?"
07:39 punkman also makes me think about what would happen in "underhanded bash install script contest". change a couple chars, pwn target?
07:40 mircea_popescu possibly.
~ 59 minutes ~
08:39 PeterL mircea_popescu did you clear the orderbook on purpose?
08:48 mircea_popescu PeterL http://btcbase.org/log/2016-04-20#1453918
08:48 a111 Logged on 2016-04-20 03:11 mircea_popescu: meh. mpex managed to flush the book. everyone is kindly asked to reintroduce whatever orders the had. apologies for the inconvenience.
08:49 PeterL so, with the diminished selection of assets listed on mpex, are you going to lower the account fee?
~ 29 minutes ~
09:19 solrodar PeterL: I doubt there have been any real account fees paid for years
09:19 solrodar my guess is the whole thing's now just a cover for money laundering
09:26 shinohai >.>
09:32 solrodar did nobody else find it implausible that he claimed to be able to find at least one person every month willing to spend $20,000 for access to an exchange where nothing was traded but shares of the exchange itself?
09:33 solrodar it looked like the world's first unintentional ponzi scheme
09:33 solrodar and then a few weeks after someone notices these alleged payments aren't on the blockchain
09:33 solrodar "we're going private"
09:46 shinohai http://i.imgur.com/AbeOik6.jpg
09:53 PeterL solrodar so what was it, mp buying his own product to increase volume?
09:56 solrodar could be some of that as well
09:56 danielpbarron $v F1F7155A2B45099761F3C62B891DA26ADF8C691BDED7D4798A407B7227F7F2FB
09:56 deedbot danielpbarron rated solrodar -1 << I find it implausible that this guy has anything interesting to say
09:57 solrodar but what I was thinking is, he's got some private arrangement whereby people pay him "account fees" and then get most of that money back in some other manner
09:57 PeterL oh, no, solrodar has iritated the priest of the cult of mircea_popescuism
09:58 solrodar after it passes through his "payment network"
09:58 * solrodar afk
09:58 PeterL could be all sorts of things
~ 22 minutes ~
10:21 mod6 mod6 here
10:21 mod6 still beat down status
10:27 * shinohai passes mod6 some "herbal remedy" <\\V\\V>ڪ
10:35 punkman http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-19/intel-cuts-12-000-jobs-forecast-misses-as-pc-blight-takes-toll
10:45 shinohai ;;later tell BingoBoingo http://ix.io/xap
10:45 gribble The operation succeeded.
10:50 mod6 hah, "hey someone put some unicode in this j.."
10:56 mats solrodar: 'i don't understand this financial instrument so the operator must be laundering money'
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10:57 mats you think he paid out 250k btc from account fees?
10:57 mats ???
10:58 PeterL did he file the AML paperwork for all those account fees? No, therefore must be money laundering!!!
11:02 mats and what are you even talking about, re: 'these alleged payments aren't on the blockchain' ?
11:03 mats i assure you, i am a real person, and have received many withdrawals from mpex over the last two years. that are on the blockchain.
11:03 PeterL I think he meant the 50 btc account creation fee
11:05 phf mats: the "mp is a scammer" crowd is riding on an 18btc bitbet incident, and will continue to do so no matter what happens. remember how everyone was losing their shit, "all bitbet money is gone!!1"
11:06 shinohai Probably just "I didn't get named BitBet receiver" butthurt.
11:07 phf meanwhile couple of months ago mp explicitly said that he's starting a process of divesting from bitcoin, that was before bitbet, before ~anybody~ had voiced any kind of objections to anything
11:07 phf that decision had causes that in turn took several months to form and manifest as these things usually go
11:08 phf so now idiots are going to look at the past couple of months and point at patterns, "where's the 50btc account creations!"
11:09 phf i'm sure a person who's ready to drop 50btc on a trading account will do ~minimal~ amount of due diligence to confirm that mpex is a viable trading platform ~at the moment~
11:16 phf i actually did some maths and was ready to drop 50btc on an mpex account, but held off for the main reason that i don't see a solution (and there wasn't one found) to minor collusion problem. that conversation happened ~last october~ (or whereabouts), it was framed as a hypothetical, but it was a long precursor to chinese miner conferences (that in turn was serious grounds to suspect potential cartel) and all that other stuff.
11:19 phf so whether or not mp is a scammer, the greater framing of this conversation, makes certain allegations not only irrelevant, but also inane
11:20 phf ffs.
11:20 solrodar shinohai: not butthurt in the slightest, davout was clearly the better candidate
11:21 mats it got a little harder when mpex stopped offering options, but s.mpoe had a lot of volume for a long time precisely because it was valuable and served as a symbol for the exchange
11:22 solrodar $v AC0E2634089EEF76EBA906B010CE7E1F1EC0232B09CBD110CE9C2FBA4241D24A
11:22 deedbot solrodar rated davout 1 << competently completed BitBet receivership in only two weeks (tm)
11:23 mats i also don't know what the fee has to do with anything
11:23 mats 'its so high nobody could possibly ever want to pay for it unless it was to launder money' ???
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11:24 phf mats: it's the muckraking from b-a spilling over to here
11:25 mats there is nothing unbelievable about a fee like that being tenable when it is 1) an exchange that has never been hacked 2) operated by someone with a serious presence in the wot
11:26 solrodar 3) and on which practically nothing was traded except the shares of the exchange itself
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11:26 solrodar whose main source of income was new memberships
11:26 solrodar see the circle here?
11:27 mats why does 3 even matter?
11:27 solrodar because there's no actual economic activity in the system
11:27 mats you think folks wouldn't pay to trade in the stock of a single company?
11:27 mats because you can't possibly conceive of a reason why ~you~ would do it, the activity must be fraudulent?
11:27 solrodar never said fraudulent
11:28 solrodar evidently investors did actually get their money back
11:28 mats you used the phrase money laundering.
11:28 solrodar only a USG agent would assume that was a bad thing :P
11:29 phf solrodar: aren't you also implying mpex is a ponzi scheme?
11:29 mats only a poor and unimaginative fella would say the things you did this morning
11:30 solrodar it would have been a ponzi scheme if it was closed
11:30 solrodar but you know how ponzi schemes usually claim to have some undisclosed source of income
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11:30 solrodar my suggestion is that that was actually the case
11:31 solrodar income from people "buying accounts" when they weren't really buying accounts
11:32 solrodar but a tumbling service
11:33 phf heh that's actually a good idea
11:34 phf but membership purchase is the core of ponzi, where's undisclosed source of income is the diversion (like herbalife sales)
11:34 phf can also have pure ponzi, like mmm
11:45 solrodar yeah, so I'm not saying it was a ponzi, or any other kind of scam, just that he wasn't being entirely up-front about what was going on
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11:47 solrodar and he admitted as much when he said "By now its opacity verges on the ridiculous."
11:47 phf solrodar: you're reading tea leaves
11:47 solrodar maybe
11:49 solrodar so you were considering buying an mpex account in october, what would you have done with it?
11:49 phf nah, i wasn't considering in october, by october i've decided i'm not going to
11:51 solrodar I'm interested in how the maths could have made sense
11:51 solrodar were you hoping to get your money back from day-trading, dividends, long-term investments, or what?
11:51 phf long-term investment
11:52 phf mpex value hinges on long term viability of bitcoin as a way to store and accumulate wealth
11:52 phf hence all the talk of berkshire, intentional cultivation of "bitcoin company" values, ideological separation from fiat, tmsr, etc.
11:52 phf from that perspective 50btc is just that, if there's a return on it 5 years from now, and continued return after that, you get +ev. more companies get listed today or in a year, list own company, etc.
11:53 solrodar and all those things mean the share price of mpex itself would rise
11:53 solrodar fair enough
~ 26 minutes ~
12:20 phf from that perspective it's not strange at all that s.bbet was "zero assets", or s.nsa doesn't pay for ascii's maryland house
12:20 phf both are fledgling processes, self contained by implicit tmsr rules. as economic activities they could never the less grow and gradually eat more of the outside world
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12:20 phf enough of these self contained but intertwined economic activities (s.nsa and s.bbet hosted on s.host selling parts to ...) and you get something interesting
12:26 solrodar you would
12:27 solrodar but when I first came across it a year or so ago, I got the impression that 2012 was the what bliss in that dawn to be alive
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12:27 solrodar and it's been winding down ever since
12:36 davout and here goes bitbet: https://blockchain.info/fr/tx/a0f12a33413ec3a38e3ae931068febec133b083d72810fc586a8b1c5f0d7922a
12:39 davout "Estimated BTC Transacted: 0.0001 BTC" <<< win
~ 28 minutes ~
13:07 ben_vulpes omg not all at once davout
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13:22 deedbot [Qntra] "Spring Into Money" Exchange Hacking Event Continues - http://qntra.net/2016/04/spring-into-money-exchange-hacking-event-continues/
13:26 BingoBoingo Sorry shinohai fxd
13:37 shinohai Awesum fix BingoBoingo "Spring Into Money" kek
13:39 shinohai I am sure Argentine Bitcoiners are laughing at their little Chilenos today.
13:40 mircea_popescu trinque incidentally, i received confirmation from a rather unlikely quarter that your "SQL is the DEF" idea is spot on : apparently people in games [modders, people who do the auction websites, etc etc,] have long ago and unviersally agreed THAT is how to DE. pic : http://logs.minigame.bz/2016-04-20.log.html#t07:32:45
13:40 mircea_popescu PeterL i dun know that the "selection of assets" was ever the criteria.
13:41 trinque mircea_popescu: yep, it suffers from having been given an inane syntax, the smell of which drives people away from the relational model
13:42 mircea_popescu http://btcbase.org/log/2016-04-20#1453984 << new version of "i don't understand how money works so jews must have pact with devil". which is WHAT is the problem with the sort of lowest-possible-effort, deliberately ignorant effort, PeterL
13:42 a111 Logged on 2016-04-20 14:56 mats: solrodar: 'i don't understand this financial instrument so the operator must be laundering money'
13:43 mircea_popescu it'll never wash. if it washes at some point in some circle, that's proof positive the circle in question is made of shit. maybe more or less invidious shit, depending, but shit nevertheless.
13:44 trinque http://logs.minigame.bz/2016-04-20.log.html#t07:47:08 << ah csv, a shitty relational table!
13:44 mircea_popescu you know ?
13:45 mircea_popescu in any case - practice prevails. this ("modder people use sql to de") reads to me exactly like "porn people use vhs" did in 1980. it's not that it's over for betamax. it's that "what is this and where's the vhs."
13:46 PeterL vhs was king until something better came along
13:48 mircea_popescu [vocabulary : def = data exchange format ; de = data exchange ; pic = point in case]
13:52 mircea_popescu check out phf doing his logreading homework eh.
13:54 mircea_popescu http://btcbase.org/log/2016-04-20#1454005 <<< it was explained originally and has to be explained periodically [because the flies have infinite hitpoints only in aggregate, as the fly swarm, otherwise live for half a year as individuals] that the principal point of the fee is specifically to keep fees away.
13:54 a111 Logged on 2016-04-20 15:23 mats: 'its so high nobody could possibly ever want to pay for it unless it was to launder money' ???
13:54 mircea_popescu see old discussions about "qualified investor" and so on and so forth.
13:55 mircea_popescu to keep flies* away
13:56 mircea_popescu http://btcbase.org/log/2016-04-20#1454008 << look, i understand this "teach plox throw the curve" talk has served you well through life. neveretheless, the fact that you don't see more things, and things made by orther people on mpex is that you personally suck.
13:56 a111 Logged on 2016-04-20 15:26 solrodar: 3) and on which practically nothing was traded except the shares of the exchange itself
13:56 mircea_popescu it doesn't attach to me, or to mpex. i'm doing things. it attaches to you, personally : you're not good enough. and you sure as hell fore that reason do not belong opining in here. go learn how to do things that mpex may consider listing.
13:57 mircea_popescu it's a sad property of EVERYONE IN BITCOIN that mp is in the classical position of zeus, where if the whole mt olympus picks up the other side of the ring, he can still throw them all over the fucking sky.
13:57 mircea_popescu this isn't something to whine about. this is something to motherfucking fix. starting years ago, but 2nd best - today.
14:05 mircea_popescu http://btcbase.org/log/2016-04-20#1454022 << you are also using words you do not master the meaning of. successful closure is sufficient and definitive proof something WAS NOT a pyramid scheme. the reason should be obvious, if you're not lazy and retarded. you however are, no matter what your mommy may have mendaciously told you, both lazy and retarded, so let's explain :
14:05 a111 Logged on 2016-04-20 15:30 solrodar: but you know how ponzi schemes usually claim to have some undisclosed source of income
14:06 mircea_popescu the reason ponzi collapses is not because ~someone wants to~. that's the angle ponzi masters ~push~, and lazy, retarded ignoramuses like yourself lap up.
14:07 mircea_popescu the reason ponzi collapses is because ~it can not continue~. that's it. if he could have, maddof would have closed down his ponzi cleanly. he can not. if it could have, the usg would have closed down its social securities, or "us financial system" or "real estate values" ponzies cleanly
14:07 mircea_popescu it can not. that's the only important attribute of a ponzi - that it can not be closed down cleanly.
14:07 mircea_popescu if it weren't for this, it wouldn't even be a bad thing, everyone'd do it.
14:08 PeterL I suppose a ponzi could be closed cleanly if done while it is still very small? If the operator kiscks in enough money to close it before it grows bigger than his pockets?
14:09 mircea_popescu if it's not larger than the operator then what is it ?
14:09 PeterL or is it only a ponzi once it gets bigger than the operator?
14:09 mircea_popescu this is some version of the "tree in the forest" argument.
14:09 PeterL could be that
14:12 mircea_popescu http://btcbase.org/log/2016-04-20#1454029 <<< i'm sorry, you want free access to IP, go ask apple. and for that matter intel.
14:12 a111 Logged on 2016-04-20 15:45 solrodar: yeah, so I'm not saying it was a ponzi, or any other kind of scam, just that he wasn't being entirely up-front about what was going on
14:17 wywialm hello
14:17 mircea_popescu hola
14:18 wywialm i wonder if F.MPIF is open for new profit centers
14:18 PeterL didn't f.mpif close?
14:18 mircea_popescu wywialm well it's a sad time for f.mpif, what with bitbet going. but i guess maybe ? what've you got ?
14:19 wywialm if you perhaps remember, i once announced work on a derivatives exchange
14:19 mircea_popescu vaguely
14:21 wywialm the work approaches completion, and in parallel i cooperated with developing market making algorithms on both futures and options
14:21 mircea_popescu http://btcbase.org/log/2016-04-20#1454044 << the principle is sound and very close to home. the unforeseen obstacle is, of course, people. specifically it turns out it's a lot harder than expected to distinguish the people who'd like to be involved from the people who have any busienss being involved. the sad realisation is that the world changed A LOT over the past few decades, and not for the better.
14:21 a111 Logged on 2016-04-20 16:20 phf: both are fledgling processes, self contained by implicit tmsr rules. as economic activities they could never the less grow and gradually eat more of the outside world
14:22 mircea_popescu wywialm good for you but what's this to do with f.mpif ?
14:23 mircea_popescu http://btcbase.org/log/2016-04-20#1454047 << no. 2012 was the year every dog with a flea in his beard could pretend to humanity. then 2013 brought the requirement to actually not be poor, and 2016 brought the requirement to not be stupid, and common folk are all butthurt over being left behind
14:23 a111 Logged on 2016-04-20 16:27 solrodar: but when I first came across it a year or so ago, I got the impression that 2012 was the what bliss in that dawn to be alive
14:23 mircea_popescu squarely ignoring the fundamental part - that they should be left behind, that they're the scum in the engine and the gout in the knight.
14:23 wywialm :) i could invite F.MPIF to join the market making operations
14:23 deedbot [Qntra] BitBet Settlement Transaction Broadcast And Confirmed - http://qntra.net/2016/04/bitbet-settlement-transaction-broadcast-and-confirmed/
14:24 mircea_popescu so basically "i have this untested thing we baked together with some greenhorns that aren't in the wot but wouldn't mind using me - wouldn't you like to give us money ?"
14:24 mircea_popescu this is a pretty miserable offer. capitalism is about who gets what, not about who needs what.
14:26 mircea_popescu http://btcbase.org/log/2016-04-20#1454051 << he condensed it to a pretty tiny size.
14:26 a111 Logged on 2016-04-20 17:07 ben_vulpes: omg not all at once davout
14:27 punkman phf: meanwhile couple of months ago mp explicitly said that he's starting a process of divesting from bitcoin, that was before bitbet, before ~anybody~ had voiced any kind of objections to anything << "divesting" came after "A miner problem"
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14:27 PeterL is there any benefit from splitting a transaction into multiple parts? seems like it would be most efficient to just do it all at once?
14:28 punkman phf: so now idiots are going to look at the past couple of months and point at patterns, "where's the 50btc account creations!" << and this was 1 year ago
14:28 wywialm i did not say that i need this money. also, it is not an offer for investing right now, just a check whether you will find anything interesting in it for you. if yes, i could go into greater detail how this is tested, how is going to be tested, etc.
14:29 mircea_popescu what has happened since you first mentioned it to lukewarm reception is that the person doing it has still not done his half year of log reading and humble wot beginings.
14:30 mircea_popescu the notion that i'd support such a thing is plainly outrageous.
14:33 wywialm for all practical purposes, i represent both the exchange and the market making, and it's more than a half year since my announcement. none of this, of course, is meant to imply that you should support anything i have to offer, i just try to clarify
14:34 mircea_popescu so you made it ?
14:35 PeterL wywialm what is traded on your exchange?
14:36 wywialm i designed the exchange, yes - as i said then, all the economic and transactional aspects are designed by me.
14:36 wywialm Quedex aims to offer FX futures and options, initially at least
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14:37 mircea_popescu i dunno why this never came through.
14:37 mircea_popescu well, so explain the design ?
14:39 shinohai http://btcbase.org/log/2016-04-20#1454120 <<< sounds like a Mexican cheese brand kek
14:39 a111 Logged on 2016-04-20 18:36 wywialm: Quedex aims to offer FX futures and options, initially at least
14:39 mircea_popescu ;;later tell mike_c hey, danielpbarron can't log into eulorum because something with cookies. anything change ?
14:39 gribble The operation succeeded.
14:39 mircea_popescu shinohai you ever had bimbo bread ?
14:40 shinohai I have a loaf in my fridge lol
14:42 shinohai Bodegas are the only place to get fresh ingredients for anything around here, except when farmer's markets are open.
14:42 mircea_popescu pretty shitty wonderbread, but always good for a lulz, make teh galz have it.
14:42 wywialm to recall main points from the previous exposition: the exchange employs gpg messaging (following the MPEx standards) and allows to trade financially-settled futures and options initially on BTCUSD exchange rate.
14:42 mircea_popescu wywialm nice, but this isn't what i have in mind when i hear "economic design".
14:43 mircea_popescu explain that part. how are they designed, these instruments.
14:43 wywialm it utilises two matching models: continuous trading and auction, the latter being triggered around market settlement and around significant market moves
14:44 wywialm all futures and options have fixed USD notional value, each of them is margined separately, though portfolio-based margining is coming soon
14:44 wywialm i.e. each contract corresponds to $100
14:45 wywialm so that bitcoin is the home currency
14:45 mircea_popescu on what basis can you offer margin ?
14:48 mod6 <+mircea_popescu> shinohai you ever had bimbo bread ? << first time I saw this in a supermarcado i was like "ha! they don't even know..."
14:49 mircea_popescu yeah lol
14:49 wywialm i'm not sure that i understand what you mean. i offer margin as i believe that the liquidation mechanism (including auction) will make sure that the losses do not exceed the deposits
14:49 mircea_popescu was one of the lulzy moments in costa rica, day after landing there, me spends with local bimbos, next day, supermarket, bimbo bread, o.O
14:50 mod6 :D
14:50 mircea_popescu wywialm a) you're sure about something you've not explained ; b) you are forcing me to read between the lines which is the opposite of competence ; c) if what you mean is that you steal everyone's deposited cash to do mutually-financed margin, what happens when a position split 50/50 (allowing you, possibly, somewhere close to 2x margin) suddenly moves in choppy trading to 85/15 split
14:51 mircea_popescu and c-1) have you looked into the history of icbit.se which did the exact same thing and its trampling is discussed in early trilema ?
14:52 shinohai mod6 they sell "crumbs" too so I wonder if a trail of those leads bimbos to your door?
14:52 wywialm beggining from the last, c-1) yes, and as far as i remember, you removed a 'scam' warning from them
14:54 wywialm a) i'll try to proceed to explain everything i know about; b) if that's the case, then indeed i'll try to speak more clearly
14:54 mircea_popescu they paid me. this doesn't make the model more workable.
14:55 mircea_popescu and don't tell me you're about to skip c ?!
14:57 wywialm no, certainly not. c) what do you mean by 'position split' and what is the relation of it to leverage?
14:58 wywialm the long positions and short positions always necessarily must match
15:02 wywialm at any rate, margin is unavoidable when one trades in futures contracts - the short leg's losses can always exceed any deposit
15:03 mircea_popescu ...
15:04 mircea_popescu mkay, let's detail this for the benefit of the kids reading logs.
15:05 wywialm ok, let me take it directly c) no, in no case the actual deposits are used as a coverage. The risk management has following steps:
15:05 wywialm first, if the position holder's losses approach his maintenance margin level, his entire position is liquidated on the market
15:06 wywialm second, if it happens that the market will move significantly impacted by this liquidation, the auction is triggered
15:07 wywialm this means that continuous trading is halted, orders are gathered and order book is balanced
15:08 mircea_popescu exchange trades symbol X. participant Be[ar] comes in and deposits 1000 coins. participant Bu[ll] comes in and deposits 1000 coins.
15:08 mircea_popescu exchange now has 2000 coins cash.
15:08 mircea_popescu exchange advances 2:1 margin to Be, backed by "its" cash.
15:08 mircea_popescu exchange advances 2:1 margin to Bu, backed by idem.
15:08 mircea_popescu Be puts in one order, at 9.9, ie 202 X.
15:08 wywialm if nevertheless, the auction price is such that the person's losses exceed his maintenance margin, the exchange covers the losses
15:08 mircea_popescu Bu puts in one order, at 10.1, ie, 198 X
15:08 mircea_popescu MP comes in and sells 1 X at 10.1. the price for X is now 10.1
15:08 mircea_popescu Be is now underwater, exchange takes its order off.
15:08 mircea_popescu MP comes in and buys the contract back, at 5.
15:08 mircea_popescu Bu is now way the fuck underwater, exchange takes his order off also.
15:08 mircea_popescu This in the happy case where the exchange doesn't attempt to autoliquidate positions, creating all the noise surges you could wish for.
15:09 mircea_popescu "the exchange covers the losses" out of what ? you're not fabulously rich afaik.
15:09 mircea_popescu and no, you can't fucking liquidate on the market, think about it for a moment. the very reason you are liquidating in the first place is that the market's no good.
15:10 wywialm from the insurance fund, replenished from commissions
15:11 mircea_popescu this is the first time i hear of such.
15:11 mircea_popescu hence a)/b).
15:11 wywialm well, liquidations don't happen when market is no good, but only when one participant is no good
15:11 mircea_popescu in any case : this is a rehash of that old http://trilema.com/2014/the-woes-of-altcoin-or-why-there-is-no-such-thing-as-cryptocurrencies/ which'd prolly make good reading.
15:12 mircea_popescu essentially, you see what the big boys are doing, and figure you'll just do it yourself. except - the big boys can do things BECAUSE they are the big boys, ie, there's bernanke there to "save the economy". you aren't, and i can lean on you. moreover, the big boys don't ever do this 2:1 thing. they do a little margin, and as private financing, which is exactly how you should be doing it also.
15:15 wywialm well, certainly the fiat currency system makes the working of derivatives exchanges much easier
15:16 wywialm returning for a while to the 'market's no good' argument
15:18 wywialm if the liquidated position is small enough, then liquidating on the market is seamless; if it's large, here comes the auction. the orders are gathered during a certain period of time, which may be extended, without time priority
15:19 mircea_popescu we're not discussing here the ideal case where "the liquidated position is small enough". we're discussing here interesting cases, when you have a noisy market and a bunch of agents that act irrationally.
15:21 wywialm if price moves far enough, the auction serves as a circuit-breaker. Essentially, the only risk lies not in a noisy market or irrational, but in a large, certain but unforseen, and fundamental jump in the price
15:21 mircea_popescu except you're small, so "large" doesn't mean much.
15:23 mircea_popescu what happens if A is leveraged 1:1 and owns 100 contracts and B is leveraged 2:1 and "owns" 400 contracts, if that " the auction is triggered" undocumented bug springs into auction ? can A's wholly-owned contracts be touched by B's insanity ?
15:24 wywialm large here means 'large relative to maintenance margin percents', so our size doesn't matter much in this case. if the maintenance margin is 10% then this means that a 10% price jump won't hurt us regardless of our reserves.
15:25 mircea_popescu not that you ever explained in your design description what "maintenance margins" are, but this is a magic trick without substance : if you need to move 5% to break you'll move 5% and if you need to move 15% you'll move 15%.
15:26 mircea_popescu and the "how i picked 10%" is a testament to the whole "copying big boys" thing. there's a reason they use the magic numbers they do.
15:26 mircea_popescu that reason is empiric.
15:26 wywialm in fact, the 10% maintenance margin is illustrative only
15:26 wywialm but i proceed to explain
15:27 mircea_popescu you can't say you designed something and then keep pulling items from your sleeve as discussion of your design progresses.
15:28 PeterL perhaps it would be better to write up a full description instead of trying to string it out bit by bit?
15:29 wywialm PeterL, yes - the full documentation will appear on the website
15:30 mircea_popescu so far, i'm not as much as able to distinguish this from "here's my facebook clone", honestly.
15:30 mircea_popescu bit by bit works, but by invalidating THAT, and sorted in order of importance.
15:32 wywialm i didn't certainly revolutionize the electronic derivatives trading industry (nor claimed to), just trying to make a robust bitcoin-based market
15:32 mircea_popescu but your design is anything but robust. it's web-optimized, metaphorically speaking.
15:33 wywialm :)
15:36 wywialm let me refer to your example. first A owns his contracts in the same way B owns them. if A has short positions, these contracts are not fully collateralized. if B's losses exceed his margin (here: 50%), and exchange's insurance fund, in that situation A's profit, but not his initial deposit will be diminished accordingly. in that way, the exchange acts only as a intermediate between the counterparties
15:36 deedbot [Qntra] Happy 420 Charlie Shrem - http://qntra.net/2016/04/happy-420-charlie-shrem/
15:36 wywialm an intermediate*
15:38 trinque BingoBoingo: lol!
15:38 mircea_popescu wywialm the fundamental problem with this view is that i do not wish to engage in a financial relationship with deadbeat B, where "your site was only an intermediary". i wish to engage in specified, modellable deals.
15:39 mircea_popescu similarly, if oksluts.com opens up offering sluts starting at 1.75 and DD for 1k dollars,
15:39 mircea_popescu i am not open to receiving a short hairy jewish girl for my money, even if oksluts.com imagines "it was just an intermediary between parties"
15:45 wywialm at present stage, the mechanisms i tried to describe are only capable of making the "short hairy jewish girl" scenario as unlikely as possible. what could make it really impossible, is to issue a CDS on the general liabilities of the exchange. The proceedings from the sale would increase the insurance fund in return for a compensation. If total amount of insurance fund and CDS issued is greater than potential losses, no haircut on profits would
15:45 wywialm be possible.
15:46 mircea_popescu these are the canonical objections to this sort of "web exchange, mutually-insured on user funds" things : that on one hand they're an algorithmic noise amplification machine with no dampener available other than the power of prayer ; and that the yessentially implement a lemon market, a sort of competition in deadbeat-ism among the users. which is why they're so popular on reddit, and nowhere else.
15:48 wywialm this doesn't refer to the CDS-insured variant, does it?
15:48 mircea_popescu depends how that is implemented.
15:51 mircea_popescu but finance, much like cryptography, is altogether a crapshoot in the dark.
15:51 mircea_popescu both are disciplines concerning thesmelves with the unseen unknown.
15:55 wywialm generally, it will look as follows: the CDSs have a specific maturity (possibly matching futures expirations). The person buys the CDS with a discount from the notional value, the proceeds from the sale of the CDS is locked until maturity. If no credit event occurs, full notional value is paid out. if it does, first the insurance fund from the exchange is used, and CDS holders are a last resort
15:56 wywialm if the losses exceed the insurance fund, the CDS's notional value is diminished proportionally
15:57 shinohai BingoBoingo: https://www.justice.gov/usao-wdla/pr/former-shreveport-chiropractor-son-plead-guilty-operating-illegal-bitcoin-exchange
15:58 BingoBoingo shinohai: Guilty pleas are generally boring
15:58 mircea_popescu this is actually robust.
15:58 BingoBoingo Oh?
15:58 mircea_popescu BingoBoingo was talking to wywialm
15:58 BingoBoingo ah
15:59 mircea_popescu shinohai i don't get it, what the fuck difference does it make that guy's dad used to be a chiropractor ?!
16:00 shinohai I guess he was using his medical license to sell Xanax
16:00 mircea_popescu heh
16:00 shinohai *because
16:01 shinohai File under: Bartards
16:02 wywialm the exchange has not yet launched and CDS mentioned above are to be implemented yet, but i asked about f.mpif knowing that in case of your slightest interest, any preparations will take a lot of time.
16:02 mircea_popescu who'd be running the pc anyway ?
16:05 wywialm i could offer my candidature, but of course this may be unsuitable for you. in that case, i could present the details to a person of your choice
16:06 mircea_popescu so basically you're looking for a skilled market maker to market make your new exchange ?
16:08 wywialm no, as i said before, i already have the automated market making algorithms, i look for expanding its funding
16:08 mircea_popescu this is also the first time you mentioned the exchange is going to take positions too ?
16:10 wywialm the market making project is separate from the exchange. i designed both, but they are independent from one another
16:16 mircea_popescu o.O
16:16 mircea_popescu are your futures going to be physically settled ?
16:20 wywialm initially, not, but it is definitely planned
16:21 mircea_popescu so how does the exchange get its price signal (other than the obvious "what'd be most convenient for the market making project")
16:22 wywialm an average of spot exchanges
16:23 mircea_popescu honestly this just reduced in my head to basically "hey, i want to be mp, and for the year to be 2012". so i guess... good luck with it ?
16:24 phf http://btcbase.org/log/2016-04-20#1454110 << but "divesting" came before "anybody had voiced any kind of objections to anything", which is what i said
16:24 a111 Logged on 2016-04-20 18:27 punkman: phf: meanwhile couple of months ago mp explicitly said that he's starting a process of divesting from bitcoin, that was before bitbet, before ~anybody~ had voiced any kind of objections to anything << "divesting" came after "A miner problem"
16:26 mircea_popescu poor deedbot
16:28 trinque he got a few timeouts when trying to reconnect to chat.freenode.net
16:32 wywialm mircea_popescu, i certainly aim to create an options market similarly to what you did, but i'm not you.
16:32 wywialm i was only presenting an offer for you to consider or discard, according to your judgement
~ 21 minutes ~
16:54 BingoBoingo wywialm: If you want to actually distinguish yourself you prolly ought to consider offering actual tulip futures with physical delivery. Gives you something to practice your market making with.
16:55 shinohai lo
16:58 BingoBoingo Seriously. It's a commodity, that gets traded, and covert delivery is easy.
17:00 danielpbarron it's prolly harder to do such a thing with bulbs. there already exist plenty of companies doing this, it's a very large market, it's a perishable product, very very heavy, need good connections, etc..
17:03 BingoBoingo Not so perishable.
17:06 danielpbarron they keep for a few months and then they better be in the ground already
17:07 BingoBoingo Prepped for storage well they'll survive out of the ground longer.
17:08 shinohai ;;later tell mod6 or ben_vulpes Should the #b-a part be changed on http://thebitcoin.foundation/ ?
17:08 gribble The operation succeeded.
17:09 mod6 Oh, kinda forgot about that.
17:10 mod6 <+shinohai> mod6 they sell "crumbs" too so I wonder if a trail of those leads bimbos to your door? << inquiring minds want to know!
17:11 shinohai I'll set up a gofundme for research. If the cryptoid horseshit can get funds so can I.
17:11 mod6 I'll have to discuss with ben on the IRC section, do we even allow people to use the webclient to connect here?
17:13 trinque heh, beat me to it
17:14 mod6 heheh. i updated that to #trilema
17:14 mod6 thanks trinque
17:14 mod6 i think we're gonna need our own wiki now too, which is fine i guess.
17:15 shinohai thx mod6 I just happened to notice it earlier.
17:15 mod6 thanks for keeping an eye out.
17:16 shinohai On the off chance someone finds it and wants to contribute, want them to show up in proper channel.
17:20 mod6 werd
17:32 BingoBoingo ;;bc,stats
17:32 gribble Current Blocks: 408204 | Current Difficulty: 1.7867830767168845E11 | Next Difficulty At Block: 409247 | Next Difficulty In: 1043 blocks | Next Difficulty In About: 6 days, 15 hours, 26 minutes, and 22 seconds | Next Difficulty Estimate: None | Estimated Percent Change: None
17:32 BingoBoingo ;;ticker --market all
17:32 gribble Bitstamp BTCUSD last: 443.91, vol: 7873.36677405 | BTC-E BTCUSD last: 435.001, vol: 9521.99303 | Bitfinex BTCUSD last: 445.27, vol: 24253.22781182 | CampBX BTCUSD last: 433.0, vol: 1.1791705 | BTCChina BTCUSD last: 444.781108, vol: 39152.19710000 | Kraken BTCUSD last: 443.5, vol: 1757.46015997 | Bitcoin-Central BTCUSD last: 438.739092, vol: 44.60126226 | Volume-weighted last average: (1 more message)
17:32 BingoBoingo ;;more
17:32 gribble 443.683554541
17:35 BingoBoingo http://www.emergencymedicalparamedic.com/most-horrific-obesity-story/ << Don't blame the mice!
17:42 shinohai If true, perhaps best hambeast story I have ever read.
~ 42 minutes ~
18:24 trinque mod6 │ i think we're gonna need our own wiki now << http://wiki.deedbot.org/ I got you
18:25 trinque I just dumped cliki2 on there; needs a better stylesheet
18:28 trinque would probably be cool to hack deedbot auth into that
18:29 BingoBoingo Just ask Herr Vulpes how he handled VAN logins
18:38 ben_vulpes session up
18:40 trinque do what now
18:40 trinque what's VAN?
18:41 ben_vulpes abortive tmsr~ ad network i build once upon a time
18:45 trinque ah I remember you talking about that
18:45 BingoBoingo dat GPG login dough
18:46 ben_vulpes shat out an otp, successful decryption of which set a session on the user's browser.
18:46 ben_vulpes nothing magical
~ 17 minutes ~
19:04 phf he's a witch, burn him
19:06 trinque well... we did do the nose
↖
19:15 mod6 heheh
19:16 mod6 trinque: awesome!
19:17 mod6 this matcha tea isn't bad as long as its not clumpy
↖
~ 1 hours 6 minutes ~
20:23 mircea_popescu wywialm yes but the offer's not clear. asked if you need money, turns out no ; asked if you need skill, turns out no. well...
20:24 mircea_popescu mod6> I'll have to discuss with ben on the IRC section, do we even allow people to use the webclient to connect here? <<< i thought so, no ?
20:28 mircea_popescu http://btcbase.org/log/2016-04-20#1454289 << lol!
20:28 a111 Logged on 2016-04-20 23:06 trinque: well... we did do the nose
20:28 mircea_popescu ftr, it was my idea / prodding that pushed him to it!
20:28 mircea_popescu http://btcbase.org/log/2016-04-20#1454292 << check it out, usians now drinking matchsticks tea for lack of phosphorus
20:28 a111 Logged on 2016-04-20 23:17 mod6: this matcha tea isn't bad as long as its not clumpy
20:36 mircea_popescu http://qntra.net/2016/04/bitbet-settlement-transaction-broadcast-and-confirmed/ << o hey check it out. frenchy becomes 1st member of tmsr noblesse du robe, makes living off republican legal process.
20:44 mod6 mircea_popescu: yeah, the web-irc thing seems to be fine.
20:45 mod6 So I dunno when I said I was going to check in on the list of things to do, if that was today or friday or whatever. But I'm just getting started now. Been too damn beat down since Friday to even do anything.
20:45 mod6 Alas, onwards and upwards.
20:45 mircea_popescu cheers.
~ 44 minutes ~
21:30 mod6 $up copumpkin
21:30 deedbot copumpkin voiced for 30 minutes.
21:30 copumpkin 1) deedbot seems to reject my attempts to register with it
21:31 copumpkin 2) mpex seems to have forgotten my public key
21:32 copumpkin anyone know what's up with either of those?
21:32 copumpkin I've been trying echo "STAT" | gpg -u <my key id> --clearsign | gpg --encrypt --armor -r 2FB7B452
21:42 mircea_popescu hola.
21:42 mircea_popescu when's the last time you used it ?
21:43 mircea_popescu for one thing, seems to be way before the last mpex key update years ago ?
21:48 copumpkin not years ago
21:48 copumpkin I did have to give you my key again a couple of years ago
21:48 mod6 copumpkin: 2FB7B452 << this is mp's personal key, try with '02DD2D91'
21:48 mircea_popescu oh right, that's my key.
21:48 copumpkin oh
21:48 mod6 http://mpex.biz/faq.html#6
21:49 copumpkin whoops, I pasted the wrong thing
21:49 mircea_popescu oddly enough i don't even recognize my key in short form o.O
21:49 copumpkin oh that worked
21:49 mircea_popescu lol yw!
21:50 copumpkin man, I feel stupid now :)
21:50 copumpkin it still shows me as having MPOE holdings. Is that expected?
21:50 mircea_popescu still there for collectors, ie, people just like you, who might want a screenshot\
21:50 copumpkin :D
21:50 mircea_popescu they don't have any monetary value or anything.
21:51 copumpkin boo
21:51 mircea_popescu well they already paid out.
21:51 copumpkin yeah :)
21:51 mircea_popescu anyway, how's life these days.
21:52 copumpkin pretty good. You? I hear you had a falling out with -assets
21:53 mircea_popescu more like moved on.
21:53 mircea_popescu but not bad, check out eulora sometime.
21:57 mircea_popescu ahahah check out his hostmask asciilifeform ~copumpkin@haskell/developer/copumpkin :D
21:57 copumpkin :)
21:57 mircea_popescu anything interesting ?
22:05 BingoBoingo $up copumpkin
22:05 deedbot copumpkin voiced for 30 minutes.
22:06 mircea_popescu $gettrust deedbot copumpkin
22:06 deedbot L1: 0, L2: 1 by 1 connections.
22:06 mircea_popescu just, huh. time has passed you by yo!
22:07 mircea_popescu but anyway - you can self-voice for an indefinite period by pm-ing deedbot $up and then $v the otp it gives you
22:14 copumpkin yeah, I tried that before, but it refused to register me
22:14 mircea_popescu uh ?
22:15 copumpkin [21:17:27] <deedbot> Import failed for copumpkin.
22:15 copumpkin I just typed $register copumpkin <fingerprint>
22:16 mircea_popescu hmmm wtf is tis
22:16 mircea_popescu oh, tyou're prolly already regiustered i expect
22:16 copumpkin hmm
22:16 copumpkin with a different nick?
22:17 mircea_popescu well no with this one since it sees your trust level
22:17 copumpkin hmm
22:18 mircea_popescu say $up
22:18 copumpkin [22:18:14] <deedbot> copumpkin may not $up
22:18 copumpkin I'm pretty evil
22:19 mircea_popescu lemme see one second, how was the key recover thing
22:20 mircea_popescu $key copumpkin
22:21 deedbot http://wotpaste.cascadianhacker.com/r/0a9db265-acd3-446f-815f-428bf5b23a41/
22:22 mircea_popescu you are already registered and it knows your key.
22:22 mircea_popescu say $up in here
22:22 copumpkin okay, weird
22:22 copumpkin $up
22:22 deedbot You must be registered.
22:22 copumpkin lol
22:22 mircea_popescu da fuck is this weird
22:22 mircea_popescu trinque any clue ?
22:22 copumpkin I think it dislikes me
22:22 mircea_popescu copumpkin it doesn't run on a mac, so why would it.
22:23 BingoBoingo Fun with CBZ and grey water irrigation https://archive.is/BM8DS
22:24 copumpkin :)
~ 19 minutes ~
22:44 BingoBoingo $up copumpkin
22:44 deedbot copumpkin voiced for 30 minutes.
22:53 asciilifeform veeeeeeeeeeeery preliminarily: http://nosuchlabs.com
22:53 asciilifeform (plz do not bookmark the rss yet! url will change to http://phuctor.nosuchlabs.com soon)
22:54 asciilifeform tank is getting refilled.
22:54 asciilifeform meanwhile, boiz and gurlz, enjoy (enjirl) the all-new Braindamage section.
22:55 asciilifeform ;;later tell hanbot there.
↖
22:55 gribble The operation succeeded.
22:56 BingoBoingo nice http://nosuchlabs.com/sadmods
22:57 BingoBoingo ROLFCOPTER http://nosuchlabs.com/gpgkey/0D9057DA7AEE12C725AA9408D47F4FFC3769BEF7891A0F9C0A9F38420C5C08AB
22:57 asciilifeform eh that one's old nyooz
22:57 asciilifeform see mircea_popescu's site.
22:58 asciilifeform but the basic litmus is now built-in and it turned up a buncha strange.
22:58 asciilifeform also thing runs on a real db now and can handle 'slashdotting' etc.
22:58 * asciilifeform has been awake for quite some time and will bbl.
22:59 BingoBoingo Yes, but now linkable
22:59 mircea_popescu lol enjirl
23:02 BingoBoingo So roughly extrapolating alf time from this and applying to Cardano... By 2020?
23:02 mircea_popescu lol merciless.
23:02 mircea_popescu people aren't machines!
23:07 BingoBoingo Oh, I was thinking more cosmological phenomena or natural process than machine
23:10 BingoBoingo to be fair I'm running roughly 10 years behind on everything that matters myself
23:12 mircea_popescu :p
23:17 BingoBoingo http://www.amplestuff.com/750-lbwideplatformdigitalscale.aspx
23:21 * BingoBoingo awaits seeing this sold in Walmart bathroom aisle. Starting to suspect instead of mp's watermelon field we'll just palletize obeasts
23:32 mod6 asciilifeform: congrats!
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