11:27 |
asciilifeform |
$ticker btc usd |
11:27 |
busybot |
Current BTC price in USD: $40704.16 |
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~ 1 hours 11 minutes ~ |
12:38 |
signpost |
seems like grayscale's turd is going to bleed out for a while |
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~ 25 minutes ~ |
13:04 |
billymg |
yeah, that's what it's looking like |
13:06 |
asciilifeform |
which turd? anyone want to summarize? |
13:13 |
billymg |
asciilifeform: this one |
13:13 |
bitbot |
Logged on 2022-08-30 13:34:55 billymg: in some cases, can't withdraw! |
13:14 |
billymg |
afaik largest "institutional" hodler |
13:15 |
asciilifeform |
billymg: the linked pg does not seem to contain any revelation that coin is being dumped |
13:15 |
asciilifeform |
is this known via some other source ? |
13:15 |
billymg |
asciilifeform: zoom out to "all", been steadily selling since '21 peak |
13:16 |
asciilifeform |
a ty |
13:17 |
billymg |
possibly now that converted to etf dumping more rapidly, but i dunno. like you said, not reflected yet in that linked chart |
13:19 |
asciilifeform |
re etf, asciilifeform laffs at the folx who laboured under the notion that a coupla gigatonne of papercoin being printed would pump, rather than sink, exchrate |
13:20 |
awt_akris |
Why? |
13:20 |
asciilifeform |
the dough that's buying papercoin aint chasing actual btc, neh |
13:21 |
awt_akris |
How do you know it's papercoin? |
13:21 |
awt_akris |
Also, why did gold price increase after the gold etf? |
13:23 |
asciilifeform |
awt_akris: iirc there is considerably moar papergold, on planet3, than actual gold. so stands to reason that au exchrate would have increased considerably moar if it weren't for the paper |
13:23 |
awt_akris |
Should have gone down, if indeed etfs have no relationship to the underlying asset. |
13:23 |
asciilifeform |
re 'how know it's papercoin' -- presumption of guilt |
13:25 |
asciilifeform |
no reason why should have 'down' in the absolute. is quite enuff for the perps to keep it at e.g. 4x when ought be, say, 10x vs. e.g. 30y ago |
13:26 |
asciilifeform |
very similarly re btc -- the lizards aint trying to 'drive it to 0', but rather to prevent it from working as a reliable general-purpose inflation shelter |
13:29 |
awt_akris |
How would gold price have increased more? More people buying bars and putting in safes? |
13:29 |
awt_akris |
Seems unlikely that would have happened. |
13:29 |
asciilifeform |
not necessary hypothesis. simply usd sinking. same way e.g. usa real estate 'went to moon' |
13:30 |
awt_akris |
I don't know if gold increased more or less in line with housing costs. |
13:31 |
asciilifeform |
(but, naturally, if it were the case that whenever buying power of usd sinks, au -- or btc -- proportionately rises, errybody would in fact load up. which is precisely what 'paperization' aims to prevent.) |
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13:32 |
asciilifeform |
if there were an 'undebaseable' asset, erryone with any savings would run to it. |
13:34 |
asciilifeform |
exactly the same way that folx in ex-sov world ran to usd in 1990s (or e.g. argentines -- currently) |
13:36 |
asciilifeform |
paperization gives 'you can run, but can't hide' effectively. you can load up on 40k btc nao but no guarantee that it won't be 20k 2-3y from nao, etc |
13:38 |
awt_akris |
Is there any way to demonstrate to your satisfaction that etfs hold btc? |
13:38 |
asciilifeform |
atm, afaik the only 'undebaseable' (i.e. monotonic 'moon') assets in the reich are e.g. pre-ww2 (non-cardboard) real estate, rembrandts, and the like. this is by design (what'd be the point of inflating usd if it dinged ~errybody~ equally) |
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13:39 |
asciilifeform |
awt_akris: if when one bought/sold etf, actual coin could be seen moving on the chain, say |
13:40 |
asciilifeform |
even then, however, you'd have nfi whether is 'allocated to you and only to you', conceivably same tx could be shown to >1 user |
13:40 |
awt_akris |
How about given the way the current etfs work? |
13:40 |
asciilifeform |
so afaik the answr is lolno |
13:41 |
asciilifeform |
awt_akris: afaik they work similarly to the au etf, neh ? i.e. not convertible on demand to the genuine article in any way |
13:42 |
awt_akris |
Correct. But these are public companies that must make quarterly filings. |
13:42 |
asciilifeform |
iirc so is e.g. coinbase. but do you actually think that it has actual btc at 100% reserve ? |
13:43 |
awt_akris |
Presumably they gotta report in a verifiable way purchases and sales. |
13:43 |
* |
asciilifeform not aware of any official requirement in any jurisdiction that goxes demonstrate 100% reserve |
13:43 |
asciilifeform |
they're required to report movements of usd, but this is orthogonal |
13:44 |
awt_akris |
If they lie on filings, they are subject to lawsuits |
13:44 |
awt_akris |
So one could sue them and get this info in discovery |
13:44 |
asciilifeform |
the lie never gets revealed until there's a mtgox-style 'bank run' tho |
13:45 |
* |
asciilifeform not heard of anyone successfully suing a not yet already-busted gox/ftx/etc to prove solvency |
13:47 |
awt_akris |
You'd have to have a massive number of employees, officials, and judges in on the conspiracy |
13:48 |
awt_akris |
across multiple companies, agencies, and juristdictions |
13:52 |
asciilifeform |
how many people were needed at mtgox, while the latter was successfully running fractional reserve ? |
13:52 |
asciilifeform |
or at ftx |
13:53 |
asciilifeform |
and iirc no bribed judges were needed |
13:53 |
asciilifeform |
if there hadn't been a run, would still be going, buying billboards, etc |
13:55 |
awt_akris |
Mt. Gox was not based in the US, not a public company. |
13:55 |
asciilifeform |
tru |
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~ 3 hours 14 minutes ~ |
17:10 |
signpost |
https://archive.is/uOhKJ << volume spike in gbtc. their fee is iirc 2%, so some of that will go to other ETFs, others may be leaving the market entirely. |
17:11 |
signpost |
re: holding of underlying my butt says the gigabanks were given legal cover for breaking the law in regard to gold. |
17:13 |
signpost |
I am skeptical that the same is going on with coinbase right now. they, kraken, and a few others have consistently published merkle proofs of reserves. |
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~ 17 minutes ~ |
17:30 |
signpost |
in either case, one should hold btc with the us dollar's collapse in mind, not an eye towards increasing usd wealth |
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~ 1 hours 5 minutes ~ |
18:35 |
asciilifeform |
signpost: the various manipulations are specifically to prevent usd collapse (i.e. the appearance of a sumthing that one could reliably flee into from usd printola, the way '90s ru folx fled from ruble to deutschmark, swiss frank, usd) |
18:37 |
signpost |
certainly are, but I think we're as corrupt and leaky as same in say 89 or 90 |
18:38 |
signpost |
that the reptiles like vanguard are preventing plebs from buying while they themselves buy into miners says much. |
18:39 |
signpost |
"for thee and not for me" |
18:39 |
* |
signpost brb |
18:40 |
asciilifeform |
scheme is that plebe is forced to choose b/w a) saving in usd, which sinks steadily (and in occasional bursts, '71, '19, etc) and b) gambling in paper casino, where might e.g. +20% over year or -20% or whatever %, with only guarantee being that 'house wins' |
18:43 |
asciilifeform |
(1 key attribute of plebe errywhere is also that he is easily persuaded that he's 'winning', because has ~0 awareness of opportunity cost. e.g. in ru there are banks paying 15-25% interest on deposits...) |
18:52 |
asciilifeform |
re: miners, imho they're indisputably the weakest link in the whole edifice. erry single day, mining gets moar effectively centralized, less within reach of humans, than prev. day |
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18:53 |
* |
asciilifeform curious re when was it last the case that a human could actually mine at even remotely near +ev |
18:54 |
asciilifeform |
i.e. buy the box, and actually recover its purchase cost + that of the mains current before rising difficulty makes it a guaranteed never |