#pest | 2023-11-15

$ticker btc usd

10:57

busybot

Current BTC price in USD: $36345.88

~ 3 hours 54 minutes ~

14:52

$ticker btc usd

14:52

busybot

Current BTC price in USD: $37322.58

14:53

btc really likes this line

15:01

billymg: maybe i'm missing sumthing but it seems to be elementarily possible to always draw such a line, no matter what the price liquishit loox like at a given time

15:02

i.e. the line conveys 0 info

~ 25 minutes ~

15:27

asciilifeform: it's interesting to me because i drew the line back in june. here's the same line on a longer time scale

15:28

and you can see the dramatic dump in august occurred right at the same line too

15:29

and the more recent october pump went right up to that line again then stopped, and the current movement we're seeing even when zoomed in seems to be dancing around that line

15:32

and i could've drawn it earlier, back in march, after seen the bounce from the dump to 19.5k. the two points that define the line are from jan and march

15:32

after seeing*

15:35

best theory is it's some sort of collective psychology phenomenon. everyone's drawing the same lines so they program their trading bots to place bets at the same points

~ 18 minutes ~

15:53

there seem to be 3 lines in the last pic ?

15:54

(5 if counting the bottom part)

15:55

problem is there's a bunch of meme lines you didn't draw, and how do I know to draw yours and not e.g. one at $25k, $18k, etc

15:55

problem is that you can draw a 'pithy' line over just about anyffin

15:55

in retrospect.

15:55

nao try trading on it

15:56

'anyone can predict, so long as it's the past, rather than future, that he wants to predict' or how did it go

15:56

there is probably a smarter analysis to be had with e.g. volume data in hand.

15:57

the folx who operate the heat engine aint particularly eager to do so in a way that randos can usefully predict.

↖

15:57

bitbot

(asciilifeform) 2021-04-23 asciilifeform: a major moving part behind the price swings are the people who run this heat engine -- 1) spread fud re bitcoin 2) 'buy the dip' 3) drum up enthusiasm among morons 4) sell dear 5) goto 1, nao w/ moar coin, extracted from morons on both strokes of the engine piston

15:58

even if the ease of painting 'line' over the engine compression diagram in retrospect very deceptively suggests the contrary.

16:05

lizard objective is quite transparently to turn btc into au, i.e. where almost all of it is bottled up in handful of reich warehouses, and people can 'trade' all they like but exclusively with paper simulacrum which is worth what they say it's worth

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16:06

(and aint any kinda inflation shelter on any reasonable time scale)

16:06

*

billymg notes he never claimed the lines are useful for trading, or anything really

16:06

billymg: if the lines represent actual pattern, they are useful for trading. and the converse.

16:06

seems elementary

16:08

the only actual pattern i see is the decade+ chart, which is pretty much "up only"

16:08

even if a lot of that is "dollar down"

16:09

thing's been proportional to hash rate forever

16:09

*

signpost still watching that

16:10

asciilifeform: they might succeed in turning it into ticker:GLD but also possible they don't this time. a lot more people are wise to their games these days

16:11

inventory *can* be reported on programmatically which is much better than the gold situation.

16:16

yup, can look at outstanding shares of the different bitcoin ETFs (if their are multiple), compare to other known large hodl addresses (those of exchanges for example). "hey waitaminute, how come these total to 83MM btc??"

↖

16:16

if there* are, geez

16:18

GLD was also the product of an era where people still trusted institutions. now, post covid, biden, ukraine, etc... who's left that does?

~ 2 hours 17 minutes ~

18:35

billymg: the gox users, lol, evidently

18:36

*

asciilifeform has nfi who they are, but they appear to exist, and in such #s as to allow the 'farmers' herdin' said cattle to survive

~ 5 hours 6 minutes ~

23:43

http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2023-11-15#1031315 << the obv boojum is that the 'observable inventory' at no point has any clear connection to what's being traded.

23:43

bitbot

Logged on 2023-11-15 16:16:04 billymg: yup, can look at outstanding shares of the different bitcoin ETFs (if their are multiple), compare to other known large hodl addresses (those of exchanges for example). "hey waitaminute, how come these total to 83MM btc??"

23:43