| 02:06 | mats | http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2024-09-14#1116515 |
| 02:06 | dulapbot | Logged on 2024-09-14 18:02:56 mats: https://archive.ph/2024.09.11-181505/https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/tether-crypto-us-dollar-sanctions-52f85459 |
| 02:10 | mats | they’ve been printing money on the 100+bn usd in yield from the treasuries they’re holding. and considering the size of the Eurodollar market (prob in excess of 18tn today), and tether’s market dominance (around 66%) in stablecoins, I think it’s plausible they’ll be earning around 2-3% yield on a trillion dollars in treasuries behind issued usdt in the next decade. they could face competition from other issuers sharing yield |
| 02:10 | mats | with users but they can easily do that too if it starts to hurt their market share |
| 02:12 | mats | the total addressable market for stablecoins consists of every country on earth except dprk (where most folks can’t get net access) and ppl in every country can trivially circumvent capital controls to purchase them as well as btc, eth. internet beanie babies are going to crush weak currencies around the world and feed the strong, and beanie babies too. the us treasury will also b happy to see many new billions of dollars in demand at |
| 02:12 | mats | treasury auctions |
| 02:16 | mats | strange to see the rise of stablecoins from bitcoin, which in turn helps slow decline of dollar dominance |
| 02:17 | mats | going to be a wild ride as countries actively experiencing demographic decline see their public budgets get crushed by a wall of entitlement spending with the associated social disorder |
| 02:19 | mats | already seeing very early signs of discontent with virtually every democratically elected government up for reelection getting killed because of inflation |
| 02:22 | mats | or the french and south korean government failing to pass budgets, and collapsing |
| 02:23 | mats | what happens between now and 2034 will be v interesting |
| 02:25 | mats | the picture for the USA at any rate is extremely sobering https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60127 thirty year projection by cbo |
| 02:26 | mats | public debt in 2054 projected by cbo to be 141tn and 166% of gdp assuming interest rates remain static and trump tax cut not renewed ("Debt held by the public at the end of the period ... 166 [percent of GDP]" in table 1-1 on p12, and "GDP at the end of the period (trillions of dollars) ... 85.2" in table 1-1 on p13) |
| 02:27 | mats | probs reasonable to plug an extra 10-15tn+ on that number since trump has a minor margin in control of congress and scotus in the pocket |
| 02:29 | mats | as for policy prescriptions nobody asked for, usa could mitigate some trillions of this by passing right to die legislation |
| 02:30 | mats | some research suggests 20-25% of Medicare costs occur in the last year of life |
| 02:32 | mats | i think as many as one in five old or terminally ill people would choose to lie down in a suicide pod rather than suffer for ages or burn their life savings on a pyre for benefit of skilled nursing facilities and healthcare providers |
| 02:34 | mats | is it really reasonable to let more than six million americans with dementia waste away in a wheelchair and a bed |
| 02:36 | mats | some of these post acute and skilled nursing facilities they inhabit cost as much as 8k/mo and the state is covering costs for many of them as they are either destitute or ultimately become destitute as a direct result of their stay |
| 02:39 | mats | is it a reasonable expenditure to pay CNAs for 12h shifts and overtime due to persistent labour shortages, in order to shower and change dementia patients three times a day because they’re reaching into their diaper and flinging their shit around |
| 02:44 | mats | but ultimately suicide pods are probably a no go with the gop having a likely 30-40y minimum lock on scotus and the federal courts system |
| 02:45 | mats | so we stick to hurdling over the cliff with the accelerator glued to the floor |
| 02:47 | mats | only question is when the world experiences a liz truss moment and refuses to continue getting soaked by usg exporting their inflation and debasing their money at the same time |