| 20:56 | mats | inflation based on cpi rates haven't been that high, 2022 was 6.5%, 23 was 3.4%, 24 was 2.9% |
| 20:58 | mats | even if you assume the 2022 ATH of $65.5k is a useful figure (spot price isn't really), $65,500*1.065*1.034*1.029 comes to about $74k |
| 21:00 | mats | the important bit is the btc strategic reserve nonsense, because he's giving the btc-as-digital-gold meme virulence |
| 21:03 | mats | the brain damage around tariffs implementation, 145% tariffs on china and trade war, and pissing on nato accelerates the decline of usd as part of central bank reserves |
| 21:05 | mats | folks are looking around for fiat alternatives now, they're a bit lacking, and so is btc as its not mature enough |
| 21:06 | mats | in recent history, usd dominance decline has been supplanted almost entirely by currencies from advanced industrial democracies, ie, aud and cad |
| 21:06 | mats | along with rmb and gold |
| 21:08 | mats | aud, cad, eur, gbp, jpy, rmb are not suitable alternatives |
| 21:11 | mats | anyway, to a significant extent i think his successful election was already priced into btc's spot price |
| 21:13 | mats | ofc its easy to call with hindsight, but significant predictors were the unseating of incumbents up for election across the planet and prediction market props with hundreds of millions of dollars in trade volume |
| 21:14 | mats | folks that didn't have political biases, or set them aside, could see it clearly |
| 21:20 | mats | i think we're quickly approaching the point where us bond yields rise uncontrollably (and persist at an elevated level) as a direct result of ballooning ss/medicare/medicaid/mil/debt payments, and the more proximate shocks from the trade wars idiocy and renewal of the tcja |
| 21:23 | mats | what will do it is an interesting question, i don't propose to know exactly what it is |