Show Idle (>14 d.) Chans


← 2021-12-29 | 2021-12-31 →
00:08 asciilifeform signpost: at the risk of pedantry -- asciilifeform aint even convinced the #s are any good for ~that~ :
00:09 asciilifeform signpost: quite possibly, they could change by any factor you like and life will remain essentially same as before. or, conversely, stay same, but at the same time -- tanks in streets.
00:09 signpost yeah perhaps.
00:09 asciilifeform fwiw su collapse wasn't especially related to any published #s
00:12 asciilifeform the amt of effort which goes into fiddling the Official #s is not on acct of any physical effect of said manipulation. similarly to how the # of monk-hours spent in prayer in 1100s was not a metric connected with any physical effect.
00:14 signpost what was interesting was that in billymg's graph the value of btc as a proportion of monetary mass (however inaccurately expressed) has been remaining roughly level for some time.
00:17 * signpost unfortunately groggy from last night's gas leak episode and mild covid, so probably oughta shelve interpretation until brain's fully in gear.
00:18 signpost I'd think there must be a great deal of BTC buying going on continuously if this proportion is remaining level while the denominator is exploding upward.
00:19 signpost tldr: get 'em while they're hot.
00:21 signpost probably the paperization of this "trade" is what undermines the thought, that printola can be aimed at causing futures ETFs to dump whenever the regime likes, and the redditards on exchanges will likewise panic.
00:21 * signpost hopes there is another such panic soon, would be nice to separate such folks from their coin.
~ 41 minutes ~
01:02 mats its a dumb correlation that doesn't mean anything
01:03 mats bitcoin is still tiny compared to the rest of the financial universe
01:07 mats why would you add m1 to m2 ???
01:08 mats do you know that m2 includes m1?
~ 31 minutes ~
01:39 signpost I did not, so there you go.
01:44 mats i feel a little bad about being aggressive, but there's a pattern of og bitcoiners making poorly formed claims about how things work
01:45 mats and maybe theyve gotten used to it because other people who dont know better have given them the benefit of the doubt
01:45 mats because they think youre rich and therefore competent
01:57 signpost nah, just trying to make sense of a mad world, man
01:57 signpost doesn't mean it will
02:07 asciilifeform http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-12-29#1070102 << at the risk of repeating self, it aint clear to asciilifeform that m1, m_n etc tell us anyffin useful re 'how things work'
02:07 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-29 20:36:50 mats: i feel a little bad about being aggressive, but there's a pattern of og bitcoiners making poorly formed claims about how things work
02:07 asciilifeform they're reich.fictions.
02:08 asciilifeform while mats is technically correct, imho is rather like pointing out that light sword in star wars is exactly 1.8 metres or whatnot
02:13 mats its not useful to call them fictions without explaining why you think it is
02:14 mats everyone on the planet with money that has a vested interest in useful figures so they can monitor their business concerns, are all in on it?
02:14 asciilifeform mats: what next, 'explain why you think' reich.inflation stat is fiction ?
02:15 asciilifeform is mats's null hypothesis really that 'reich stats are troo' ?
02:17 mats well, go on then
02:17 asciilifeform mats: outta curiosity, do you believe e.g. stats published by pyongyang? (if not, why not?)
02:17 mats every dealer with used car inventory is lying?
02:17 mats everyone in the auto supply chain is in on the fiction?
02:18 mats they've all hidden parts and cars in secret hangars?
02:18 asciilifeform how does auto supply play into m1, m_n etc ?
02:18 signpost you seem upset mats.
02:18 signpost perhaps trying to raise awareness of groupthink you've seen on twitter.
02:18 mats you mentioned inflation, which in usa refers to the consumer price inflation
02:19 mats the 'all the stats are lying' is a useful shit test for people willing to swallow a lie
02:19 mats or are we going to revisit the mp era again?
02:19 asciilifeform mats: it aint a seekrit that the Official reich.inflation quite overtly excludes almost errybody's major expenses (housing, medical, collegism, etc)
02:20 signpost mats: like I said, you're trying to start a fight with someone in your head.
02:21 mats i understand that the way various items are weighted in cpi is opaque
02:21 asciilifeform mats: asciilifeform's assertion aint 'they're lying', but that they've no obvious relation to physical reality, 'not even the kind of connexion that is contained in a direct lie'
02:21 dulapbot (trilema) 2014-07-03 asciilifeform: 'But actually, he thought as he re-adjusted the Ministry of Plenty's figures, it was not even forgery. It was merely the substitution of one piece of nonsense for another. Most of the material that you were dealing with had no connexion with anything in the real world, not even the kind of connexion that is contained in a direct lie. Statistics were just as much a fantasy in their original version as in their re
02:22 asciilifeform mats: there's nuffin opaque about the deliberate exclusion of e.g. housing cost
02:22 asciilifeform (if it were to be included, the Official inflation would be 20-30% & climbing)
02:22 asciilifeform usg would then have to index e.g. pensions to that, and would be zimbabwe broke by next mon.
02:23 mats its not excluded lol
02:23 mats you could truthfully say that you think its understated, but it is not excluded
02:24 asciilifeform mats: this is rather obvious hairsplitting, and if somebody were doing it at you you'd balk
02:24 * signpost reads https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/owners-equivalent-rent-and-rent.pdf for the hell of it.
02:26 signpost bwahaha their official word is that only hypothetical rent is included because the rest is an investment instrument.
02:26 signpost fuck 'em all.
02:26 signpost mats: it would satisfy you in some way if I accepted ^ as sane?
02:26 asciilifeform 'Housing units are not in the CPI market basket.'
02:28 signpost CPI samples are selected in stages. The sample of 87 CPI pricing areas was selected
02:28 signpost first for use by all components of the CPI. The pricing areas are metropolitan areas
02:28 signpost and smaller urban places selected to represent 38 CPI areas of the urban United
02:28 signpost States.
02:29 signpost they pick from wherever they like, I'm sure according to a standard of "fairness" which unweights the places people actually do productive work.
02:29 asciilifeform indeed
02:29 * signpost had enough of this fine govt website for today.
02:30 asciilifeform the quickest way to see what reich stats are worth is to look at own wallet. asciilifeform's expenses in past 2y up considerably farther from the Official 6% or what was it.
02:30 asciilifeform 'your lying eyes'
02:34 mats https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/relative-importance/2020.htm housing is about 42% of cpi
02:36 signpost and if you look just below it's using the rent notion I linked.
02:37 signpost and the sampling method.
02:38 signpost at any rate, if mats wants to feel safe in the hands of his government, welcome to it.
02:38 mats they get to these figures by surveying homeowners and renters, sure, that's problematic
02:38 mats but you could say that, if you knew that was the case
02:38 signpost I do not aspire to refine my recommendations for public policy.
02:39 mats if you want to reach other people who might in principle would share your view of reality, you have to start with facts
02:39 mats in principle share*
02:39 signpost all I'm doing is tolerating your projections of what that may be.
02:42 signpost my first word in the thread was how unclear all of it is, not an interpretation of the screen-squiggles.
02:43 signpost anyway, perhaps mats can be bothered to make a more fundamental point. the current back-and-forth is pretty tedious.
02:44 mats said what i meant to say, so i'll leave it here
02:46 signpost mats: as for "revisit the mp era" perhaps this will clarify a bit http://ossasepia.com/2021/11/16/the-tragic-flaw-in-modern-interpretation/#comment-15771
02:50 signpost anyway, I like being called out dumb when merited. by far the best feature of TMSR.
02:52 mats its easy to misunderstand what the measures are telling you if you don't care to look at exactly how it works
02:53 mats usg has changed the calculation of cpi multiple times
02:53 mats looking at the curve literally isn't useful at all
02:53 signpost mats: not being glib here, but I'd genuinely read you on it if you wrote.
02:54 signpost everyone accumulating his own pile of trivia and expecting that the other made same pile doesn't make for much.
02:54 mats i've repeated some of the republic bullshit to actual finance people and learned very quickly how much of a retarded follower that i am
02:56 * signpost has observed several folks just stick a minus sign in front of the "republic bullshit" and think they've fixed their heads.
02:56 signpost at any rate, happy to hear what nuance there may be in CPI, if you were to inform me.
02:57 signpost less happy to be a punching bag for all of TMSR philosophy, though I'm working to unwind some of that myself.
02:58 signpost as it relates to mp, much of it probably has to be taken as propaganda intending to separate folks from the empire.
02:59 * signpost figures also when people hear "propaganda" they think synonym for lies, and it's a completely other thing.
02:59 signpost but anyway.
03:00 mats https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/historical-changes.htm
03:01 asciilifeform from asciilifeform's pov, is very strange to see this kinda thing framed as a 'lol, mp ideology!' when can see not only own, but literally errybody in meatwot with palpably lighter wallets erry yr since 4evah ago on acct of prices
03:01 asciilifeform 'but you aint Typical Konsoomers' 'introduce me to a Typical Konsoomer plz'
03:02 mats cpi isn't for individual consumption
03:02 asciilifeform 'avg. temperature in the hospital is only up 0.1 degree' 'but errybody is dying of typhus' 'so ok, we weigh the temp of the morgue occupants too, explain why shouldn't'
03:03 mats if you want to look at how certain things have changed, there is e.g. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/csushpinsa
03:04 signpost is the summary here "mats said memes from tmsr and got smacked by banker friends"?
03:04 asciilifeform avg. temp incl. morgue.
03:04 asciilifeform 'let's include meth belt in house price index' yea
03:05 mats there are housing prices indices for regions
03:05 mats so you can exclude meth belt.
03:06 asciilifeform mats: iirc you've lived in a # of locales in usa, and know that 'meth belt' is not geographically confined, can walk to outpost of it from almost anywhere
03:07 signpost this is going to be a really stupid thread as long as mats refuses to state the case he wishes to make.
03:07 signpost FRED's a decent source of economic stats?
03:07 asciilifeform near as i can tell, the case is a variant of 'stop believing your lying eyes'
03:08 mats the meth problem has really accelerated over the last decade
03:08 asciilifeform i can look at own lightening wallet in one hand, and the Official stats in other hand, and guess which one will believe.
03:09 mats i was very clear, not sure how to elaborate further without more tedious back-and-forth
03:09 * asciilifeform finds this experience surreal, in the old sovok nobody one'd be likely to meet entertained belief in Official stats
03:09 mats on meth, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2021/11/the-new-meth/620174
03:09 asciilifeform in the current reich, otoh, constantly running into such folx
03:09 signpost asciilifeform: look it's our first collapse!
03:09 signpost :D
03:09 asciilifeform signpost: 3rd, arguably
03:10 signpost we're forgetful
03:10 asciilifeform fdr's, then nixon's
03:10 signpost mats: you have an ideological axe to grind behind the particulars. which is fine, I also.
03:10 signpost but you should say it.
03:11 mats i did. 'lying by statistics' is a real thing that happens, but you gotta be able to say what the lies are
03:11 signpost or I could guess, but when you were doing that my direction was grating as all hell.
03:11 * asciilifeform can't speak for mats, but suspects he is suffering from same malaise as e.g. asciilifeform's mother. i.e. doesn't like, ~really~ doesn't like the idea that he's living in a scaled-up pyongyang, hence 'it aint so'
03:11 signpost mats: why would I spend effort trying to understand which of the US government's pronouncements are lies and which true?
03:12 mats if i can't explain something to a first year student, i haven't really understood
03:12 signpost mats: if we have good measures of inflation, what's the best way to normalize BTC price for it?
03:13 mats i don't understand the question at all
03:13 mats btc flows have nothing to do with consumer price inflation
03:13 mats and i can't think of how the flows relate to monetary inflation either
03:14 signpost you're kind of a miserable guy, in the end.
03:14 mats like, maybe in a hand-wavey way
03:14 signpost "hm what's this chart mean" "the government's economic statistics are reliable" "solve a problem with them" "what kind of an idiot asks this question'
03:14 * signpost yawns
03:15 * asciilifeform suspects 'religious' difference w/ mats, i.e. incompat. null hypothesese, will leave off for nao
03:15 asciilifeform may just as readily ask dpb to explain why christmas celebrators are damned to 9th circle of hell
03:16 signpost it's more like dpb importantly feigning masturbatory shock that you don't already know.
03:16 signpost and even he doesn't do that.
03:16 asciilifeform this thread will be a lulzy reread when usd goes ruble circa '93
03:17 asciilifeform (without anyffin in the way of 'warning' via 'm1' 'm2' etc)
03:17 signpost if the USSR had invented MMT it'd be sending generation ships to alpha centauri today.
03:18 asciilifeform mmt?
03:18 signpost "modern monetary theory"
03:18 asciilifeform a
03:19 mats you could say that usg backstopping bonds has driven yields into the ground, and that this has sparked a rush into other asset classes like housing and bitcoin by allocators in search of yield
03:20 asciilifeform hilariously was hrusch who 'drank the koolaid' and 1st demanded that the books actually balance (despite operating a command economy, with money as effectively ritual object), nearly tanked then
03:20 asciilifeform mats: 'yield' in this case is 'keeping yer money'
03:21 mats you could say that the decline of usd as a share of foreign reserves held by central banks has fallen to ~20y lows, sitting at 59%, and that the continuation of this pattern could lead to more flows into btc and eventual downgrading of usd
03:23 signpost entirely reasonable to say that current BTC exchange rate really only reflects that it's the ultimate speculative object in a spectrum of them, if I interpret correctly.
03:24 signpost seems both this can be true and that long-term holding addresses continue to accumulate, which appears also to be true.
03:24 signpost I think I said way above that I hope the BTC speculative bubble pops, selfishly.
03:25 * signpost is curious what other TMSR propaganda he sees in my thinking.
03:25 mats the spot price is a terrible signal
03:25 asciilifeform usg's entire anti-btc strategy currently seems to reduce to 'turn it into speculative hell', lest it become the obvious go-to inflation shelter
03:25 dulapbot Logged on 2021-11-22 13:23:33 asciilifeform: ( the lizard strategy is interesting imho: to mask the inflation shelter aspect of btc by artificially pumping it up and 'burying' the rise with paperola)
03:25 mats one of many reasons it swings so heavily is because bitcoins and the rest of the cryptoasset universe trade 24/7 and are also highly liquid
03:26 mats if you're lucky, cryptoasset to cryptoasset exchange can take as little as an hour, you'd be lucky to get a day in the rest of the fossilised financial universe
03:26 signpost asciilifeform: yeah, the "no spot ETFs" position gives that away.
03:26 asciilifeform (is wai they legalized 'institutional' leveraged-maggotting on top of btc)
03:27 mats i find that complaining about bitcoin volatility is a lot like being mad that an airplane is flying instead of taxiing on the ground
03:27 asciilifeform imho flew quite well enuff in '11
03:27 asciilifeform pre-'institutionalization'
03:27 mats institutions have barely gotten started
03:28 mats slow moving ships, those
03:28 * asciilifeform counts the usg-tolerated goxes , which buy & sell largely imaginary coins, dispense leverage, etc. under institutions
03:29 asciilifeform not merely e.g. investment banks
03:30 * asciilifeform must bbl
03:31 signpost yeah, I don't think it's surprising to say the game of financial corewars going on in crypto generates the volatility, and that this will go up.
03:31 mats the 24/7 trading and liquidity is why volatility is so high, whenever the wind blows, folk can make emotional trades
03:31 * signpost doesn't either expect to be a part of a revolutionary something which removes the folks kicking in the pool
03:32 signpost long-BTC in my mind is a bet that the US meets its 1991 moment in my lifetime, and I don't care what the price is meanwhile.
03:32 signpost I don't trade.
03:33 mats meanwhile equities trading is highly compressed into ~30 hours a week
03:36 mats anyway, good chat, afk
03:37 signpost cya
~ 6 hours 42 minutes ~
10:19 sad235szd morning
~ 32 minutes ~
10:51 sad235szd any canadians here (or anyone with an opinion for this ) thoughts? [https://www.ubiworks.ca/guaranteed-livable-basic-income] [is there possibility of this to pass sooner OR later?]
~ 1 hours 40 minutes ~
12:32 scoopbot New post on btcinfo: Installing slimv using esthlos-v
12:39 asciilifeform sad235szd: ithought they already had welfarism there ?
12:44 asciilifeform sad235szd: 'ubiism' is political bait for idjits tho. keep in mind what happens to prices from demand-side subsidies.
12:44 dulapbot (trilema) 2014-11-02 asciilifeform: i often wonder what take #2 would be like, if they understood what happens to price (e.g., usa with credit and 'college loans', etc)
12:45 asciilifeform (e.g. landlord:'hey, nice, heard errybody's getting 5k$/mo for phree. yer rent is nao n+5k')
12:46 asciilifeform $ticker btc usd
12:46 busybot Current BTC price in USD: $47641.6
12:46 asciilifeform !w poll
12:46 watchglass Polling 14 nodes...
12:46 watchglass 205.134.172.26:8333 : Alive: (0.081s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Return Addr=0.0.0.0:8333 Blocks=716396
12:46 watchglass 205.134.172.6:8333 : (172-6.core.ai.net) Alive: (0.086s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Return Addr=0.0.0.0:8333 Blocks=716396
12:46 watchglass 54.39.156.171:8333 : (ns562940.ip-54-39-156.net) Alive: (0.111s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=716396
12:46 watchglass 205.134.172.4:8333 : (172-4.core.ai.net) Alive: (0.084s) V=70001 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.7.0.1/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=716396
12:46 watchglass 205.134.172.27:8333 : Alive: (0.144s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=716396 (Operator: asciilifeform)
12:46 watchglass 205.134.172.28:8333 : Alive: (0.083s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Return Addr=0.0.0.0:8333 Blocks=716396 (Operator: whaack)
12:46 watchglass 71.191.220.241:8333 : (pool-71-191-220-241.washdc.fios.verizon.net) Alive: (0.170s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=716396 (Operator: asciilifeform)
12:47 watchglass 208.94.240.42:8333 : Alive: (0.143s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=716396
12:47 watchglass 143.202.160.10:8333 : Alive: (0.245s) V=70001 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.7.0.1/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=716396
12:47 watchglass 54.38.94.63:8333 : (ns3140226.ip-54-38-94.eu) Alive: (0.267s) V=88888 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.8.88.88/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=716396
12:47 watchglass 94.176.238.102:8333 : (2ppf.s.time4vps.cloud) Alive: (0.364s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=715925
12:47 watchglass 82.79.58.192:8333 : (static-82-79-58-192.rdsnet.ro) Alive: (0.407s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=715925
12:47 watchglass 103.36.92.112:8333 : (terebe.ns01.net) Alive: (0.620s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=716396
12:47 watchglass 75.106.222.93:8333 : Could not connect!
12:48 asciilifeform sad235szd: in usa, they recently sent coupla $k to ~erryone 'for phree' ('stimulus'). all it did was create an auto shortage, morons immediately used the cheques as down-payments for auto loans
12:49 asciilifeform ~doubling prices pretty quickly.
~ 28 minutes ~
13:17 * whaack knows a canadian chick here cashing in on the ubi scam, afaik money winds up with a cr drug dealer shortly after it hits her bank account
13:24 billymg http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-12-29#1070100 << thanks for pointing out the logic flaw in the chart, like signpost i'm just trying to find some useful signal, like everyone else
13:24 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-29 20:00:14 mats: do you know that m2 includes m1?
13:24 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-29 20:49:21 signpost: nah, just trying to make sense of a mad world, man
13:28 billymg mats: what i was hoping to get from the chart was a sense of BTC's "share of the pie", it seems that might not be the right metric, USD spot is also a terrible measure of that because USD itself is unreliable
13:29 billymg that's also how i understood this question
13:29 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-29 22:04:51 signpost: mats: if we have good measures of inflation, what's the best way to normalize BTC price for it?
13:30 * billymg has nfi what "btc flows" are, perhaps mats will elaborate
13:30 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-29 22:05:31 mats: btc flows have nothing to do with consumer price inflation
13:35 billymg mats: perhaps the word "inflation" is difficult to work with because of the various definitions and measures. but if one wanted a sense of bitcoin's share of global wealth, or % of global wealth stored in bitcoin, would one be able to calculate this (or even get remotely close)?
~ 18 minutes ~
13:53 billymg http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-12-29#1070071 << had brought this up at some point too, yours seems cleaner than arbitrarily stripping in the bot/logger
13:53 bitbot (pest) 2021-12-01 billymg: i'm also wondering what to do in the logger with the hearsay annotations in the future. should log bots just peer with everyone in the net? should it just be stripped off, or maybe shown on hover? there's also the issue that [] are valid characters in IRC nicks
13:53 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-29 17:32:33 asciilifeform: considering a cmd for pest spec, 'SLAVE <handle>', for use w/ bots such as billymg's; sets a condition where broadcasts received via <nick> register as immediates
~ 16 minutes ~
14:10 billymg if bitcoin crashed back to 3 digits i'd run, not walk, to nearest office farm that would have me and start dumping ~90% of the proceeds into btc. i'm not holding my breath though because i suspect the entire reason they pumped it in the first place was to prevent plebs from loading up
14:10 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-29 22:16:48 signpost: I think I said way above that I hope the BTC speculative bubble pops, selfishly.
14:10 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-29 13:18:55 asciilifeform: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-12-29#1070003 << reich pumped it, which makes it trivial for'em to then dump it
~ 16 minutes ~
14:26 sad235szd asciilifeform: idk, with all that automation
14:26 sad235szd sure there must be some bright/good sides under the veil of the 'good intensions'/slavery m ?
14:26 sad235szd *surely
14:27 sad235szd i mean u become like fully dependent on gooberment/mercy of gooberment but still hah
14:29 sad235szd btw naturally dried pineapple is the shit, you should try if , if not already ))
~ 18 minutes ~
14:47 shinohai http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-12-29#1070071 <<< this satisfies my lust for anti-pc things.
14:47 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-29 17:32:33 asciilifeform: considering a cmd for pest spec, 'SLAVE <handle>', for use w/ bots such as billymg's; sets a condition where broadcasts received via <nick> register as immediates
14:56 sad235szd in other news girly looks guilty but will that emerge amount to something, who knows
14:56 cgra http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-12-28#1069958 << from a group of apparent, non-ideal options (incl markdown and 'roll your own'), i ended up choosing "reStructuredText" when deciding how to begin drawing down trb picture while eating the c++ spaghetti
14:56 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-28 15:13:42 asciilifeform: what asciilifeform would much prefer is a non-retarded 'markdown' that knows how to order endnotes. but dun seem to exist
14:56 cgra it may or may not fit your purpose, but at least it appears to properly permit multiple invocations of same footnotes and lets you define anchors you can organize irrespective of section numbering. i don't know if automatic section numbering works, in case you needed that also.
14:56 cgra and no idea if helps anything re diagrams
15:04 asciilifeform cgra: ty, will take a look
15:06 cgra for me, for now does what md doesn't and i figured maybe can convert later to smth else with own code, if need be (speaking of which, not clear to this noob at all how to formulate a proper replacement)
15:06 dulapbot Logged on 2021-09-13 19:51:27 asciilifeform: a civilized replacement (sexprs!!!) for 'markdown' would be an a++ noob project.
15:09 asciilifeform cgra: the scheme asciilifeform had in mind was (text "...foo..."), (link "http://foo"), (section "foo"), (subsection-n n "sectionname"), (endnote "endnote text"), etc
15:10 asciilifeform ... n being 'depth' of subsection
15:11 asciilifeform output would be html, similar to markdown's
15:12 asciilifeform 'endnote' prolly oughta take a handle, so can use w/ 'link'
15:12 asciilifeform (endnote foo "text") then can (link foo)
15:13 asciilifeform or rather, (link "text" foo)
15:13 asciilifeform imho whole thing'd be a pg or so of cl
15:14 asciilifeform prolly could even bake it using 'cl-who'.
15:15 asciilifeform http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-12-30#1070300 << likely if they had enuff waterfall fuel to make this happen, already would
15:15 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-30 09:02:10 billymg: if bitcoin crashed back to 3 digits i'd run, not walk, to nearest office farm that would have me and start dumping ~90% of the proceeds into btc. i'm not holding my breath though because i suspect the entire reason they pumped it in the first place was to prevent plebs from loadin
15:16 asciilifeform http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-12-30#1070310 << likely will get 'epsteined' in the clink, even if doesn't start squealing
15:16 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-30 09:48:09 sad235szd: in other news girly looks guilty but will that emerge amount to something, who knows
15:17 sad235szd ye it's possible
15:17 asciilifeform http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-12-30#1070296 << in actuality wealth aint printolade, or even btc, but goods/services; from this pov, 'btc's share of pie' (i.e. goods/services buyable directly with actual btc) is microscopic
15:17 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-30 08:27:06 billymg: mats: perhaps the word "inflation" is difficult to work with because of the various definitions and measures. but if one wanted a sense of bitcoin's share of global wealth, or % of global wealth stored in bitcoin, would one be able to calculate this (or even get remotely close)?
15:18 sad235szd yet epstein is not 100% dead imo
15:18 sad235szd weird
15:18 asciilifeform sad235szd: what makes you think he aint dead?
15:23 asciilifeform billymg: keep in mind that 1 of the aims of reich's btc damping is to buy it up 'cheaply'. (certainly not for 'giveaway' of cheapcoinz to plebes)
15:24 asciilifeform ( hence the slow conversion of goxes into 'roach motels' where coin enters, but does not leave )
15:24 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-29 10:33:22 billymg: lol, from the same rag: "Korean crypto exchange ‎Coinone will no longer allow withdrawals to unverified external wallets"
15:25 sad235szd idk from what i've seen/read/also a little bit of intuition
15:25 sad235szd does deedbot still accepts registering for the wot btw
15:25 asciilifeform !!help
15:25 deedbot http://deedbot.org/help.html
15:25 deedbot http://deedbot.org/help.html
15:25 asciilifeform hm signpost , bug ^ ?
15:26 asciilifeform sad235szd: i expect !!register worx
15:26 sad235szd i mean ive posted few times but not from the paste.deedbot , does it works with external cer
15:26 asciilifeform oughta
15:26 sad235szd then strange
15:27 asciilifeform sad235szd: try it, and if barfs, i expect signpost will help you when he wakes up
15:28 asciilifeform http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-12-30#1070306 << it aint as if there's any shortage of reading material re what it's like to be warehoused in a reich-sponsored flat, for instance.
15:29 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-30 09:19:08 sad235szd: i mean u become like fully dependent on gooberment/mercy of gooberment but still hah
15:29 asciilifeform ( if yer in usa, can walk to nearest 'section 8 park' and see for yerself )
15:32 sad235szd i know only section.80
15:32 sad235szd kendrick lamar :>> xaxa
15:34 sad235szd will try to get informed throughout
15:39 skylamer !!register https://pastebin.com/raw/kUjx0PJX
15:39 skylamer nope
15:44 shinohai I'll be back on pestnet later, having comcast issuez
~ 15 minutes ~
15:59 mats http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-12-30#1070285 << The auto shortage is the product of supply chain issues, ie, supply-driven, not demand-driven. i believe a majority of stimulus checks went into the stock market
15:59 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-30 07:40:52 asciilifeform: sad235szd: in usa, they recently sent coupla $k to ~erryone 'for phree' ('stimulus'). all it did was create an auto shortage, morons immediately used the cheques as down-payments for auto loans
16:00 mats http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-12-30#1070291 << I think realised cap is a more useful signal than market cap. I compare btc’s realised cap today, 0.45tn, with the rest of the financial universe: gold is about 10tn, usd 21tn, global stock market cap 100tn
16:00 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-30 08:20:10 billymg: mats: what i was hoping to get from the chart was a sense of BTC's "share of the pie", it seems that might not be the right metric, USD spot is also a terrible measure of that because USD itself is unreliable
16:01 mats http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-12-30#1070294 << flows are the movement of money
16:01 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-30 08:22:27 billymg: has nfi what "btc flows" are, perhaps mats will elaborate
16:03 mats many populists believe the fed is to blame for today's inflation problems, i think that's a mistake
16:16 sad235szd yea jfk knew it was a mistake, too
16:17 billymg mats: that's sort of what it sounded like. so flow would be another term for the "velocity of money"? or different?
16:18 billymg the reason for my confusion was because the question was posed as "what's the best way to normalize BTC price for [inflation]?" -- i.e. didn't see anything in the question about "flows"
16:24 asciilifeform http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-12-30#1070356 << 404 ?
16:24 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-30 10:31:34 skylamer: !!register https://pastebin.com/raw/kUjx0PJX
16:24 billymg re: inflation: to me if you have 10 gold bars in the world and each is worth $10M, if 10 more are dropped from space you now have 20 and each is worth $5M. so yes, if the fed printer goes brrr, i see that as having a direct effect on price inflation
16:26 asciilifeform billymg: not necessarily linear
16:29 asciilifeform http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-12-30#1070359 << quite conceivably tru re desk-fliers; otoh asciilifeform lives in a 'working class' neighborhood and was able to see with naked eye a # of new autos appearing erry time that printer went brr
16:29 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-30 10:51:52 mats: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-12-30#1070285 << The auto shortage is the product of supply chain issues, ie, supply-driven, not demand-driven. i believe a majority of stimulus checks went into the stock market
16:30 asciilifeform would be surprising if this ~hadn't~ eventually created parts shortage.
16:35 asciilifeform http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-12-30#1070368 << imho this is a 'phlogiston'. i.e. implicitly assumes that there is such a unit as 'actual money' and that usd, btc, are at any given moment simply multiples of said unit. whereas no such entity exists.
16:35 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-30 11:10:51 billymg: the reason for my confusion was because the question was posed as "what's the best way to normalize BTC price for [inflation]?" -- i.e. didn't see anything in the question about "flows"
16:50 billymg asciilifeform: right, not linear, just saying if you keep printing more dollars you can't expect them to hold the same purchasing power forever
16:51 billymg which i didn't even think was controversial
16:51 asciilifeform billymg: not only not holds same purchasing power, but as the destruction of the industrial economy carries on (by, among other means, printolade-flooding) the purchasing power drops nonlinearly
16:52 asciilifeform already there are things you can't easily buy, whether you have a stash of usd, gold dubloons, or even btc
16:53 asciilifeform ( recall e.g. mp's piece where 'turkeys are finite' )
16:54 billymg asciilifeform: yeah, not disagreeing, just waiting to hear how it's not the fed's fault
16:54 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-30 10:55:44 mats: many populists believe the fed is to blame for today's inflation problems, i think that's a mistake
16:55 billymg asciilifeform: not sure if the same piece but the mpism i remember is "something something take dollar buy a bun take a billion dollars buy a billion buns. there ain't a billion buns!"
16:55 asciilifeform approx
16:56 asciilifeform historically hyperinflation comes from simple attempt to maintain 'biz as usual' in spite of not having with what
16:56 dulapbot Logged on 2021-09-27 10:49:47 asciilifeform: PeterL: both come from same root -- lizards' desire to keep their yachts, palaces, and cocaine despite a collapsing support base. i.e. same thing that happened in e.g. argentina. (or 1700s fr. for that matter. and plenty of other places.)
16:57 asciilifeform e.g. '20s austria trying to keep vienna going despite no longer having countryside of the empire connected to it
17:02 asciilifeform after not too long, you end up with actual physical problems which are no longer correctable by fiddling paper. e.g. shortages of fuel, parts, transport, for farm equip., consequent food scarcity, the inevitable requisitions and resistance to same, etc
17:08 asciilifeform (incl. 'labour shortage' where folx dun see a point in clocking in while remaining homeless )
17:08 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-24 22:11:54 asciilifeform: ( or they will replace the workers who can't live on the inflatola and dun see point in working ? )
17:13 asciilifeform hoarding supplies becomes the obv. smart thing to do, putting further pressure on suppliers
17:14 asciilifeform whole process moar or less exhaustively documented, repeated many times in past century.
~ 1 hours 14 minutes ~
18:29 * asciilifeform updated 0xFC draft with fix for this gotcha, and with 'SLAVE'/'UNSLAVE' cmds.
18:29 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-10 13:03:12 jonsykkel: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-09-19#1058812 << if this is a point you get same with address cast 276byte ciphertext
18:29 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-29 17:32:33 asciilifeform: considering a cmd for pest spec, 'SLAVE <handle>', for use w/ bots such as billymg's; sets a condition where broadcasts received via <nick> register as immediates
18:29 asciilifeform ^ achtung thimbronion , jonsykkel , et al
18:29 * asciilifeform aware of various other things that must be done re spec but sadly short on time atm
18:42 jonsykkel cool, il update my thing
18:42 asciilifeform ty jonsykkel
18:43 * asciilifeform not had chance to test jonsykkel's pestron just yet
18:45 jonsykkel no hurry, will still murder testnet if connected to it anyway
18:46 asciilifeform jonsykkel: how's that?
18:46 asciilifeform (spams?)
18:46 jonsykkel blatta9983 crashes when recv getdata messages
18:46 asciilifeform aa
18:46 asciilifeform tsk
18:47 jonsykkel (potentialy other unhandled ones as well, dunno dident test)
18:47 asciilifeform the correct behaviour per spec is to ignore unspecified msg coads
18:47 jonsykkel indeed
18:47 asciilifeform ( subj )
18:59 signpost http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-12-30#1070344 << yeah, it didn't like having two processes running against same db. I shut off the #pest one for now.
18:59 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-30 10:18:03 asciilifeform: hm signpost , bug ^ ?
19:00 asciilifeform a
19:00 signpost was farting responses arbitrarily to either depending on which won the race
19:01 signpost sad235szd: feel free to register
19:05 shinohai jonsykkel: iff'n ya want to peer using yer smol pest, feel free to gpgram me a key.
19:07 jonsykkel shinohai: aight can do that, lemme quickly add slaves and addrcasts first
19:07 shinohai kk
19:11 asciilifeform 'haste makes waste', jonsykkel , dun hurry to add knobs
19:13 jonsykkel sure, these particular updates are 5lines of code however (addr cast was done already. just gotta padding 266->262)
19:14 signpost sad235szd: when you reg, use http://paste.deedbot.org/ per http://deedbot.org/help.html
19:16 asciilifeform jonsykkel: a ok
19:17 asciilifeform signpost: ha, asciilifeform in fact fughot that it requires paste.deedbot, thought it eats whatever url
19:17 asciilifeform (like !!deed)
19:23 signpost actually might not even require that, dunno what the gent did
19:23 signpost but I'm around, can retry whenever
19:24 signpost http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-12-30#1070365 << seems weird that there would be a singular blame.
19:24 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-30 10:55:44 mats: many populists believe the fed is to blame for today's inflation problems, i think that's a mistake
19:26 * signpost wouldn't be surprised if much of the brrrrr is circulating in the casinos, sure.
19:27 signpost but (speculating here, so watch your blood pressure) I wouldn't be surprised if casino patrons take their winnings and seek yield elsewhere, driving bubbles in things that would be considered "consumer inflation"
19:28 signpost housing, I'd be shocked if you argued it hadn't been turned into a speculative instrument, so much so that zillow et al are getting in.
19:29 signpost supply chains are also casino-ified, no? freight derivatives and so on.
19:32 asciilifeform signpost: often enuff, i'd suspect, elementary 'lemme buy x nao before can't any longer'
19:32 asciilifeform auto, house, tinned food, gpu, you name it
19:32 signpost yeah, that's "incentivize spending not hoarding (TM)" in the limit, eh?
19:32 asciilifeform aaha
19:33 asciilifeform is how weimarization typically goes.
19:33 * shinohai is looking at a fully-restored 1988 Mazda RX-7 that comes with asking price of $9K
19:34 * asciilifeform recalls when a fella tried to sell him precisely that one for btc, in '14
19:35 shinohai This one comes with spare 13B engine, so I can practice my die grinding skills! :D
19:35 asciilifeform shinohai: if you go in for that kinda thing, wainot
19:35 * signpost haz a tundra that'll probably last him til unborn kids go to college
19:37 * asciilifeform recently bought an ancient, rusty f150 w/ 8ft bed, for work on new pad. still running month later
19:37 signpost mats: anyway to wrap up, perhaps assuming a fiat currency must exist (which I don't), the fed has done the right things given circumstances. this will still fail as all central planning of things too big to understand fail.
19:37 shinohai Sadly it would be a "weekend" or track car. I think the Georgia Highway Patrol would frown upon me stowing whores in the hatch .....
19:38 signpost whether that failure is reflected in degradation of food, still-shittier plastitextiles, w/e, doesn't really matter to me.
19:38 asciilifeform imho 'blame fed' is rather like to 'blame gosplan' for su collapse. it aint 'blameless', but is merely instrument of lizards
19:38 signpost and I believe "everyone knew" the soviets were just about to surpass us in all economic measures right up until they crumbled.
19:39 jonsykkel 2nd gen rx7 very gool car. turbo?
19:39 signpost maybe mats has been making some money in the markets, which if so, great!
19:39 shinohai jonsykkel: yes, single precision turbo 68
19:39 jonsykkel nice
19:40 sad235szd i am here
19:40 * sad235szd is back
19:40 shinohai Same guy also haz 1993 FD with a $45K tag on it, 88mm turbo on that one,, i'ts an angry lil bitch.
19:40 sad235szd so signpost, it's just doesn't work it seems idk why tried both in chan and in /q
19:40 jonsykkel i bet
19:41 asciilifeform sad235szd: try again nao
19:41 sad235szd oks
19:41 jonsykkel not as good looking tho
19:42 signpost you are missing the protocol on your url
19:42 shinohai im just a sucker for the1988 model w/ 5-speed, they are getting rarer to find unmolested.
19:43 jonsykkel anything else than manual useless
19:43 sad235szd says 'already registered'
19:43 sad235szd hmm
19:43 signpost then it is
19:43 signpost one of your attempts worked
19:43 sad235szd cool
19:43 signpost why do you keep switching out of the nick you registered?
19:43 sad235szd cuz i was checking on the site, is there irc command for that tho
19:44 sad235szd habit
19:44 signpost site's generated by a batch job at an interval
19:44 sad235szd oh
19:44 signpost just keep whichever name you want to use
19:44 sad235szd okay
19:45 sad235szd but it had ` ( a special character ) in it when was the gpg first reg, is that a problem tho?
19:46 sad235szd from now on im with da new nikkk
19:46 signpost it stored whatever you registered.
19:46 skylamer` thanks
19:54 skylamer` truth or ? not
19:56 shinohai skylamer`: I investigated, found true.
19:56 jonsykkel accurate enuf
20:02 skylamer` the randomized study succeded
20:04 signpost moar signal plz, less noise
20:15 shinohai jonsykkel: can haz vpatch when you add the new bits, etc ?
20:16 jonsykkel shinohai: sure il put on www and let u know
~ 39 minutes ~
20:56 jonsykkel asciilifeform: are you meant to check that speaker field matches peer that you successfully decrypted addr cast from? (if not, how to distinguish bounce baks of own addr casts)
~ 1 hours 36 minutes ~
22:32 mats http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-12-30#1070367 << velocity of money is a different thing. flow is the net of all cash inflows and outflows
22:32 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-30 11:09:44 billymg: mats: that's sort of what it sounded like. so flow would be another term for the "velocity of money"? or different?
22:33 mats http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-12-30#1070383 << like i said before, the current inflation woes are due to supply-side problems, not monetary policy
22:33 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-30 11:46:26 billymg: asciilifeform: yeah, not disagreeing, just waiting to hear how it's not the fed's fault
22:37 mats http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-12-30#1070373 << sure, the printer is sortof to blame. but also, people have been shut-in for a long time, discretionary spending on cafes, beers, restaurants, gas and car insurance, night clubs, etc, went way down, while checks and unemployment insurance kept rolling in
22:37 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-30 11:21:25 asciilifeform: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-12-30#1070359 << quite conceivably tru re desk-fliers; otoh asciilifeform lives in a 'working class' neighborhood and was able to see with naked eye a # of new autos appearing erry time that printer went brr
22:37 mats lots of pent-up demand there
22:40 mats and lots of handouts. student loan payments were suspended -- still are, until at least may2022 and possibly even through midterm election season -- and the intervening period even counts toward public service loan forgiveness time
22:40 signpost yeah, trying to recall where I saw an interesting graph of how much retail spending had been pulled forward according to the historic trend.
22:41 mats a nice little giveaway for public slaves
22:43 signpost sounds like you lay more blame on direct authoritarian intervention than monetary policy. seems pretty reasonable to me.
22:43 signpost except insofar as authoritarian control of the monetary policy (including monetizing govt debt) enables the interventions.
22:44 mats tapering hasn't begun yet, overnight reverse repos are still in progress
22:44 mats but it is important to separate out the factors instead of flailing
22:45 signpost sure, I'm enjoying you laying it out.
22:46 mats in other news, https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/Central-banks-accelerate-shift-from-dollar-to-gold-worldwide
22:47 mats https://blogs.imf.org/2021/05/05/us-dollar-share-of-global-foreign-exchange-reserves-drops-to-25-year-low
22:47 mats https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-12-14/doj-china-initiative-to-catch-spies-prompts-fbi-misconduct-racism-claims
22:48 mats https://archive.is/c3QMw FT "The oldest asset class of all still dominates modern wealth: Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed money into real estate instead of business investment"
22:49 mats https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/nov/07/what-have-low-interest-rates-done-for-britain-depressingly-little-bank-of-england
22:50 mats https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2021/may/6/general-chinas-africa-outreach-poses-threat-from-a
22:53 asciilifeform http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-12-30#1070489 << there's no wot entry / key for self, so this aint actually a problem
22:53 dulapbot Logged on 2021-12-30 15:48:14 jonsykkel: asciilifeform: are you meant to check that speaker field matches peer that you successfully decrypted addr cast from? (if not, how to distinguish bounce baks of own addr casts)
22:54 asciilifeform thinkaboutit.
22:55 asciilifeform value of speaker field dun make any diff there.
22:57 jonsykkel asciilifeform: theres isnt wot entry for self, but the addr casts are rebroadcast, so you get your own casts returned back to you and decryption will succeed for peer that you originally created that cast for
22:57 asciilifeform oh hm
22:57 jonsykkel (aka will look like cast originated from that peer, if only look at stuff inside Text field)
22:58 asciilifeform jonsykkel is right, oughta specify that speaker field matches
22:58 * asciilifeform will amend spec
22:58 jonsykkel alrite
23:05 asciilifeform done. ty jonsykkel .
23:05 jonsykkel exelent
23:08 asciilifeform a possibly more general point is that a station ought not to process incoming messages which appear to be from self, at all
23:09 asciilifeform (nor should it rebroadcast a message back to its originator, ever)
23:09 asciilifeform both are iirc known bugs in the current blatta
23:10 asciilifeform prolly also oughta be in spec
23:10 * asciilifeform not atm awake enuff to properly saw on the spec
23:14 jonsykkel i think can simply put all messages you originate in dedup buffer
23:15 jonsykkel if rely on speaker field might get problems if change handle at wrong moment and so on
23:15 jonsykkel not that that would happen very often exactly
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